By Rolfe Winkler

U.S. iPhone shipments are expected to grow 2.5% this year, IDC estimates, a figure that's lower than the 3.4% the research firm previously expected but is nonetheless robust in the face of tariff headwinds.

Surprisingly, its forecast for global iPhone shipments is basically flat at 1.7% growth compared with its prior forecast of 1.8% growth.

IDC also reduced its 2025 growth projections for overall global smartphone shipments to 0.6%, down from a 2.3% forecast made in February before President Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement.

In addition to potential demand impacts from tariffs, strong competition in China from Huawei is expected to continue to weigh on Apple's market share.

So what's the good news for Apple? IDC points to the Middle East and Indonesia.

IDC now forecasts iPhone shipments will jump 9% in the Middle East this year, up from its prior estimate of 5%, an increase the research firm partly attributes to petrostates investing in their local economies.

Meanwhile, Indonesia sales are coming back. The country of nearly 300 million people had banned sales of iPhone 16 models last year over Apple's failure to meet requirements for local investments. The ban was lifted earlier this year when Apple agreed to invest more in the country.

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 29, 2025 15:24 ET (19:24 GMT)

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