Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGS. While good news for shareholders, the company has traded much higher in the past year. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Today we will analyse the most recent data on Shoe Carnival’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

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What's The Opportunity In Shoe Carnival?

According to our valuation model, Shoe Carnival seems to be fairly priced at around 12% below our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Shoe Carnival today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $21.67, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Shoe Carnival’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

See our latest analysis for Shoe Carnival

Can we expect growth from Shoe Carnival?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with an extremely negative double-digit change in profit expected next year, near-term growth is certainly not a driver of a buy decision. It seems like high uncertainty is on the cards for Shoe Carnival, at least in the near future.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? SCVL seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on SCVL for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on SCVL should the price fluctuate below its true value.

With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. At Simply Wall St, we found 1 warning sign for Shoe Carnival and we think they deserve your attention.

If you are no longer interested in Shoe Carnival, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.