Original Title: "From 'Alternative' to 'Necessity'? - In the Triple Play of Regulation, Institutions, and Macroeconomic Storms, How is Crypto's 'Asset Ledger' Written? | WTR 6.2"

Original Source: WTR Institute

Weekly Recap

For the week from May 26th to June 2nd, the highest price of Ice Sugar Orange was near $110,718, and the lowest was close to $103,068, with a fluctuation range of about 6.19%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there was a large amount of trading around 103,876, which may provide some support or resistance.

• Analysis:

1. 60000-68000: approximately 1.21 million coins;

2. 76000-89000: approximately 1.28 million coins;

3. 90000-100000: approximately 1.41 million coins;

• The probability that the short-term decline will not break below 95,000-100,000 is 80%;

Important News Aspect

Economic News Aspect

1. At the opening of Monday, stocks in the U.S., with the Nasdaq rising by 0.11%, the S&P 500 falling by 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 0.35%, and gold rising by 2.6% to $3376 per ounce.3. South Korea will hold a presidential election on Tuesday, regardless of the election result, the crypto industry will benefit. Both leading candidates, Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol, have promised to ease regulations and expand digital asset acquisition channels. According to data released by a South Korean bank, the total value of crypto assets held by Koreans as of the end of last year was approximately $74.5 billion.

4. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated: The impact of tariffs on inflation may reach its peak in the second half of 2025. Tariff measures will raise the U.S. unemployment rate, and there are downside risks to the economy and job market, along with upside risks to inflation. The prospect of rate cuts depends on a slowdown in inflation and whether tariff measures are at the lower end of the range. The "good news" is that rate cuts may still be possible later this year.5. Derivatives market traders predict that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold until September, followed by a "rapid and substantial rate cut."6. Vincent Reinhart, Chief Economist at Mellon Investments, stated: By June of next year, the market expects the benchmark interest rate to plummet by 100 basis points to the 3.25%-3.5% range. This view believes that the Fed will urgently switch to growth maintenance regardless of inflation concerns.7. U.S. banks warned that U.S. tariffs have a more significant negative impact on the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar. Bank of America expects economic data to be somewhat weak. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warned that the U.S. bond market will eventually crack.8. The 1-year U.S. credit default swap (CDS) rose to 52 basis points, nearing the highest level since 2023. The debt ceiling crisis has never been truly resolved, and the risk of U.S. government default is rising.9. The devaluation of the U.S. dollar and U.S. bonds, gold gaining support to hit new highs, and recently crypto has also experienced multiple new highs.

Crypto Ecosystem News

1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Corporate Finance Division released a statement on May 29, 2025, clarifying that three types of staking activities in Proof of Stake (PoS) networks do not constitute securities issuance or sale under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The three types of staking covered include node operator self-staking, self-custody staking, and custodial institution staking on behalf of clients.

2. New York City Comptroller Brad Lander rejected Mayor Eric Adams' proposal for issuing municipal bonds backed by BTC. Brad Lander, who oversees bond issuance along with the Mayor's Office of Management and Budget, stated that New York City will not issue BTC-backed bonds during his tenure, citing cryptocurrency's volatility as insufficient to fund the city's infrastructure, affordable housing, or schools.3. At the ETHGlobal Prague summit, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated that Ethereum will undergo a 10x L1 scaling within a year, followed by a period of consolidation before the next leap forward.4. Simon Gerovich, CEO of the publicly-traded Japanese company Metaplanet, announced the acquisition of 1088 BTC for approximately $117.3 million, bringing their total BTC holdings to 8888.

5. El Salvador increased its BTC holdings by 8 BTC in the past week, bringing its total holdings to 6194.18 BTC.

6. SharpLink Gaming filed Form S-3 ASR with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, entered into an ATM sales agreement with A.G.P., enabling the issuance and sale of up to $1 billion worth of common stock through A.G.P., with the majority earmarked for acquiring ETH.

7. Analyst Rachael Lucas noted that the price of BTC is at a critical juncture psychologically and technically, which could determine the success of the bull run. Indicators like RSI and MACD suggest a temporary weakening of bullish momentum, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic, possibly indicating an early phase of a new supercycle. The interconnection between BTC and the traditional financial markets is strengthening, making it more sensitive to economic data, central bank statements, and geopolitical risks.

8. Bloomberg reported that South Korea will hold a presidential election on Monday, and regardless of the outcome, the crypto industry is poised to benefit. Both leading candidates, Lee Jae-myeong and Yoon Suk-yeol, have pledged to relax regulations and expand digital asset access channels. According to Korean banks, the total value of cryptocurrencies held by Koreans as of the end of last year was approximately $74.5 billion.

9. Cointelegraph reported that investors are adapting to the evolving macroeconomic landscape, with cryptocurrency investors closely monitoring U.S. tariff negotiations for any signs of a lasting trade agreement. Analysts predict that if such an agreement is reached, it could provide an opportunity for altcoins and BTC to rise.

9. Coinshares Weekly Report Data: Last week, the net inflow of digital asset investment products was $2.86 billion, bringing the total over seven weeks to $10.9 billion. Last week, ETH inflows surged, reaching $321 million.

10. As of May 31, U.S. BTC Spot ETFs collectively held 1.2056 million BTC. The Grayscale GBTC held the most with 660.8K BTC, followed by Fidelity FBTC with 198K BTC, and Grayscale GBTC with 186.6K BTC.

10. Strategy increased its BTC holdings by 705 BTC last week. Strategy's founder, Michael Saylor, stated that their BTC buying program has no limit. As the price continues to rise, the difficulty of acquiring BTC will grow exponentially, but Strategy will acquire BTC more efficiently.

11. GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen views BTC as a hedge against USD devaluation and stated that if BTC ultimately becomes a hedge against USD devaluation, it still has more room to grow.

11. In BTC's 12-year June performance history, there have been 6 gains and 6 losses. The largest monthly gain occurred in June 2016, with a 27.14% increase, and the biggest monthly loss occurred in June 2022, with a 37.28% decrease.

12. Cointelegraph reported that investors are striving to adapt to the ever-changing macroeconomic environment. Cryptocurrency investors are closely monitoring U.S. tariff negotiations, looking for any signs of a potential lasting trade deal. Analysts predict that if achieved, this deal will provide an opportunity for altcoins and BTC to rise.

Long-Term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull Market/Bear Market/Structural Change/Neutral StateMedium-Term Exploration: Used to analyze which stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what circumstances we will faceShort-Term Observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain developments and events occurring under certain conditions

Long-Term Insight

• Illiquid Long-Term Whales

• Long-Term Participant Holding Structure across Different Timeframes

• On-Chain Spot Total Selling Pressure

• Exchange Large Inflow-Outflow Net Position

• Cryptocurrency's U.S. ETF

• Long vs. Short Term Holder Cost Basis

1. Supply-Side Structural Analysis: Continuous tightening of certainty

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's supply continues to exhibit a structurally tightening trend, which is the most significant and stable fundamental characteristic of the current market.

Strong Growth of Illiquid Supply:

(Whale of Illiquid Long-Term Supply in the Following Image)

The illiquid BTC supply controlled by long-term holders or whales continues to show a strong growth trend, and the growth slope has not shown significant decay recently. This indicates that BTC continues to move from the high liquidity trading market to low liquidity long-term holding addresses, effectively reducing the market's immediate selling pressure.

1.2 Steady Increase in the Share of Long-Term Holders:

(Long-Term Participant Holding Structure at Different Time Frames in the Following Image)

The "realized cap" share of holders with a holding period of over six months has slightly increased to 0.450. This means that nearly half of the Bitcoin supply is held by conviction-driven, less frequently trading long-term investors, forming the market's "ballast".

1.3 Confirmation of Large Net Outflows from Exchanges:

(On-Chain Total Selling Pressure)

A small amount of BTC has recently moved to exchanges, which may reflect an increase in short-term trading activity or some liquidity needs.

(Net Exchange Inflow-Outflow of Large Amounts in the Following Image)

Exchanges have once again experienced significant net outflows of large amounts. This indicates that even in the presence of short-term two-way flows, the ultimate destination of large funds is still away from exchanges, further reinforcing the tightening supply outlook.

2. Analysis of Demand-Side Dynamics: Overall Resilience vs. Marginally Sensitive Game

Compared to the supply side's deterministic tightening, the demand side exhibits more complex and dynamic features, showing that structural demand for long-term allocation still exists, but is easily disturbed by price, macro signals, and market sentiment in the short term.

2.1 Observation of "Gear Shift Period" in ETF Fund Flows:

(U.S. ETF for BTC in the Following Image)

Displaying a Bitcoin spot ETF, after experiencing an initial explosive growth, the recent fund inflow rate has significantly slowed down, nearly approaching the zero axis. Although the latest day's data showed a slight positive turn, the magnitude was small, not yet sufficient to determine a trend reversal. Of course, on the news front, data (such as IBIT's monthly inflow and total scale) indicates that the top ETF products still demonstrate strong attracting power, implying that institutions have a certain resilience in long-term BTC allocation demand. The current ETF flow may be in a transitional period from "FOMO-style inflow" to "normalization, value-driven allocation" shift.

2.2 Support Effect of Short-Term Holder Cost Line

(Below Diagram - Long-Term vs Short-Term Holder Cost Line)

The average holding cost of short-term holders has steadily risen to $96,581. The current BTC price is still running above this cost line, meaning that most short-term participants are in a profitable state, which to some extent reduces the risk of large-scale sell-offs triggered by panic or unwinding. This cost line constitutes an important dynamic psychological and technical support level in the current market.

2.3 Potential Catalyst of Macroeconomic Expectations and Hedging Demand: On the news analysis front, the improvement in PCE data has strengthened the Fed's rate cut expectations, which provides potential liquidity support for risky assets like BTC. At the same time, concerns about the global economy (especially U.S. bond market risk, expectations of USD depreciation) may also enhance BTC's attractiveness as a store of value and risk hedging tool (as mentioned by GameStop CEO). The realization and pace of these macro demand-driving factors will have a significant impact on BTC demand.

3. Market Equilibrium State Evaluation: Rebalancing of demand under strong supply constraints and game of expectations - integrating the analysis of both the supply and demand sides, the current medium-term equilibrium state of the Bitcoin market can be defined as a "period of demand rebalancing under strong supply constraints and game of expectations."

3.1 Dynamic Evolution of Supply-Demand Imbalance: The ongoing structural tightening on the supply side, along with short-term fluctuations in demand-side momentum, collectively form the main bulwark of the current market. Against the backdrop of increasingly scarce supply, any positive signals from the demand side (such as continued recovery of ETF flows, landing of macro bullish news) could be amplified, driving prices upward. Conversely, if demand remains weak, prices may retrace moderately or move sideways to find a new supply-demand equilibrium point.

3.2 Interpretation of Exchange Platform Internal Activity: A slight increase in volumes transferred to exchange platforms, alongside large net outflows, may reflect the rising turnover rate within the market and increased short-term trading activity. This provides both long-term buyers with accumulation opportunities and may increase price volatility in the short term.

3.3 Identification of Key Turning Points:

· Upward Turning Point Signal: Continued and significant net inflows of ETF funds; further clarification or early anticipation of interest rate cuts at the macro level (e.g., positive resolution of tariff issues); unexpected regulatory developments favorably impacting the environment.

· Downward Turning Point Signal: Continued net outflows of ETF funds, or inflows far below expectations; price effectively dropping below the short-term holder cost line ($96,581) and triggering a chain reaction; severe negative impact at the macro level (e.g., unexpected inflation rebound, or sharp deterioration of tariff issues).

4. Conclusion and Outlook: Finding Alpha in Certainty and Uncertainty

Based on the latest on-chain data and news analysis, the mid- to short-term outlook of the Bitcoin market exhibits the following characteristics:

· Strong Fundamental Support: Structural tightening of the supply side is the most critical cornerstone of a long-term bull market, providing a solid bottom support for prices.

· Demand Side in Observation Period: The long-term trend of institutional demand remains positive, but in the short term, the volatility of ETF flows and sensitivity to macro signals have increased, prompting the market to actively seek new and sustainable demand drivers.

Short Term: The market is expected to maintain high volatility, with its fluctuations supported strongly by the short-term holder cost line ($96,581). Of course, considering the marginal sensitivity of ETF flows and high dependence on macro signals (especially tariff progress and the actual Fed interest rate reduction path), price volatility around this line may intensify.

• Upward Catalysts:

Continued and significant net inflow recovery of ETF funds (daily average stabilizing at the billion-dollar level); unexpectedly confirmed interest rate cut expectations at the macro level (e.g., the Fed clearly shifting dovish nine months earlier); substantial positive developments in the regulatory environment (e.g., significant progress in the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act").

• Downside Risk Points:

Continued weak ETF flow or a shift to significant net outflows; macro "black swan" events (e.g., a sharp deterioration of tariff issues leading to a global risk-off sentiment upgrade, but funds not choosing BTC as a safe haven); price effectively dropping below the short-term holder cost line and triggering a larger-scale stop-loss.

• Risk Focus Points:

Macro uncertainty (especially tariff issues) and the continuity of ETF flows are the biggest risk points in the short term. For market participants, the current strategy should be to fully recognize the long-term supply-side positives while closely monitoring the marginal changes on the demand side and the evolution of the macro environment. In the "period of demand rebalancing and expectation game under strong supply constraints," detailed data tracking, rational expectation management, and keen capture of key turning point signals are crucial for excess returns.

Mid-term Analysis

• Various Price Structure Analysis Models

• Liquidity Supply Level

• Incremental Model

• USDC Buying Power Composite Score

(See below Various Price Structure Analysis Models)

The current inventory level is around 108,000, and the market is generally in a profitable state. From a static structural perspective, the current level may be a good take-profit zone, even temporarily ignoring the results and processes of market dynamics game theory to reduce decision-making complexity.

(See below Liquidity Supply Level)

The liquidity supply level is currently in a gradual decline phase, indicating a market with potentially weaker liquidity. This could be followed by an overall slowdown in sentiment. If the market continues to slide in its current state, it may enter a phase of brief consolidation and adjustment.

(See below Incremental Model)

The incremental phase is currently in a decline and contraction stage. When facing overall profit-taking pressure, a lack of incremental supply could diminish upward momentum and price sustainability.

(See below USDC Buying Power Composite Score)

Compared to before, USDC's buying power score has dropped by one grade, currently sitting at only a "high" level. There may be a slight shift in buying power loss towards the end of the US market session, weakening the momentum.

Short-term Observation

• Derivative Risk Factor

• Options Intentional Transaction Ratio

• Derivatives Trading Volume

• Options Implied Volatility

• Profit and Loss Transfer Amount

• New and Active Addresses

• Sugar Orange Exchange Net Long Position

• Auntie Exchange Net Long Position

• High Weighted Sell Pressure

• Global Purchase Power Status

• Stablecoin Exchange Platform Net Inflows

Derivative Rating: Risk factor is in a neutral area, derivative risk is moderate.

(See Derivative Risk Factor graph below)

A slight pullback occurred in the market, moving the derivative risk factor from red to a neutral area. There are no special expectations for derivatives this week.

(See Options Intent Transaction Ratio graph below)

The put option ratio is at a mid-high level, with trading volume at a medium level.

(See Derivatives Trading Volume graph below)

Derivatives trading volume is at a medium level.

(See Options Implied Volatility graph below)

Options implied volatility has only experienced slight fluctuations in the short term. Sentiment rating: Neutral

(See Profit and Loss Transfer Volume graph below)

The slight market pullback has only seen a minimal amount of panic selling by fear chips. Current market positive sentiment and fear sentiment are both at low levels.

(See New and Active Addresses graph below)

New active addresses are at a mid-low level.

Spot and Selling Pressure Structure Rating: BTC and ETH are in a continuous large outflow state.

(See Sugar Orange Exchange Platform Net Inflows graph below)

Currently, BTC is experiencing continuous large outflows.

(Illustration of E Tornado Trading Platform)

ETH has experienced a significant outflow.

(Illustration of High Weight Sell Pressure)

Currently, there is no high weight sell pressure.Buy Pressure Rating: Global buy pressure remains steady compared to last week, similar to stablecoin buy pressure.

(Illustration of Global Buy Pressure Status)

Global buy pressure remains steady compared to last week.

(Illustration of USDT Tornado Trading Platform)

Stablecoin buy pressure remains steady compared to last week.

Weekly Summary:

News Summary:

The latest market news portrays a scene where the cryptocurrency asset is facing a difficult dilemma amidst the macroeconomic "double-edged sword" (interest rate cut expectations vs. tariff risks) and a "dawn moment" in the internal regulatory environment. The SEC's favorable clarification on PoS has injected crucial certainty into the industry's development, with institutional deep involvement and corporate strategic adoption reshaping the market's supply and demand fundamentals. Of course, the Federal Reserve's ultimate policy path is still subject to a complex macro game, and short-term market sentiment is inevitably disrupted by external noises.

• Short Term: The market may continue its consolidation pattern, being highly sensitive to macro signals (especially progress in tariff negotiations and the Fed's interest rate meeting statements). If tariff risks are effectively controlled and interest rate cut expectations are further strengthened, it is expected to bring new upward momentum to BTC and ETH. Otherwise, caution should be exercised against technical correction risks.

• Medium Term: As the positive effects of the SEC's clarification on PoS gradually become apparent and institutional allocation continues to deepen, the ETH ecosystem is expected to embrace development opportunities (the change will not be too significant due to past suppression). BTC, with its properties as a store of value and macro hedging tool, will continue to attract attention amidst global economic uncertainty. Further clarification of the regulatory framework (such as the policies of the new South Korean government) will be a significant catalyst.

• Long-Term: Whether the crypto market's "new supercycle" can truly take shape depends on its ability to move onto a trajectory of improving regulation, undergo a fundamental shift from speculation-driven to value-driven, successfully address competition and integration from the traditional financial system, as well as challenges from other emerging technologies (keep an eye out). Vitalik's grand plan for ETH L1 scalability, if successfully implemented, will significantly enhance its utility value and network effect, potentially laying a solid foundation for long-term growth. For market participants, the core strategy at this stage should be based on a deep understanding of the coexistence of "structural optimism" and "cyclical caution." Maintain conviction, flexibly respond to short-term fluctuations, and consistently pay attention to long-term signals that can fundamentally change the industry (such as key regulatory breakthroughs, disruptive ecosystem innovations, and strategic adoption by different countries).

On-Chain Long-Term Insights:

1. Structural tightening on the supply side, the key cornerstone of the long-term bull market remains, providing a solid bottom support for the price;2. Long-term institutional demand trend remains positive, but short-term ETF flows are volatile and sensitive to macro signals;3. The market is actively seeking new, sustainable demand drivers;4. Short-term high volatility consolidation is expected, with the price fluctuating between the short-term holder cost line ($96,581) and the previous high.

5. Clearer catalysts are needed for directional breakthroughs.

6. Risk concerns, the greatest short-term risks are macro uncertainty (especially tariff issues) and the sustainability of ETF flows.

• Market Tone:

The current strategy should be based on a full acknowledgment of the long-term bullishness on the supply side while closely monitoring changes in demand and the evolution of the macro environment.Overall, it is in a state of "demand rebalancing and expectation game under strong supply constraints"

On-Chain Mid-Term Exploration:

1. Market overall profit-taking, around $108,000 is the stock top, simplifying the decision-making process.

2. Liquidity supply is decreasing, market liquidity is weak, sentiment slowing down or entering a consolidation period.

3. Incremental contraction phase, supply shortage weakens upward momentum and price sustainability.

4. USDC buying power score drops to "high," slight capital outflow, momentum state weakening.

• Market Tone:

Caution, Wait-and-See

The market is profitable but experiencing reduced liquidity, incremental contraction, weakened USDC buying power, and momentum loss. Currently, it may be in a period of consolidation and adjustment.

On-chain Short-term Observations:

1. The risk factor is in the neutral zone, with moderate derivative risk.2. The number of new active addresses is relatively low.3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.4. Net outflows from exchanges for BTC and ETH are continuing at a high volume.

5. Global buying power remains stable compared to last week.

6. In the short term, there is an 80% probability that the price will not fall below 95000~100000;

• Market Outlook: Currently, there are fewer chips looking to take profits at the current price, and the buying power is sufficient to support it. This week, the market is expected to be influenced by derivatives, leaning towards oscillation, with a low probability of a direct large retracement.

Risk Warning: The above is all market discussion and exploration, and does not provide directional views for investment; please treat it with caution and beware of market black swan risks.

This article is contributed content and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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