Bitunix Analyst: Fed Signals Rate Cut, Dollar Could See Volatility Spike, Bitcoin Short-Term Focus on Holding Above $105K

Blockbeats
06/03

BlockBeats News, June 3rd, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech, in which he did not directly comment on interest rates but emphasized that the U.S. dollar policy has changed. He mentioned that the future may face more significant exchange rate fluctuations, sparking market attention. On the same day, several Federal Reserve officials hinted that a rate cut may still be possible this year, including Chicago Fed President Evans, Governor Brainard, and Dallas Fed President Kaplan, all indicating that if inflation slows and the labor market remains robust, a rate cut before the end of the year would be rational.

Brainard further pointed out that if long-term expectations stabilize and core inflation falls back, it would support a rate cut. The market expects rates to remain unchanged in June and July, but the possibility of a rate cut in the second half of the year has increased, leading to a recent weakening of the U.S. dollar and higher asset price volatility risk.

Bitunix analysts suggest:

The Fed's dovish comments have revived market risk appetite in the short term, but increased U.S. dollar volatility may disrupt fund allocations. Bitcoin's short-term key level is around $105,000. If it can hold above this level, it is expected to continue its upward trend. Investors are advised to closely monitor the U.S. dollar index and interest rate expectations.

If the U.S. dollar weakens further, BTC has the opportunity to test the resistance zone above 110K; conversely, if the market shifts back to risk aversion, it is essential to defend the key support around 102.7K. Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a range-bound strategy as the primary approach and observe any shifts in market sentiment before the mid-June FOMC meeting.

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