The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Corrects "Ares Capital" to "Ares Management" in fifth paragraph.

By Jonathan Guilford

NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The blank-check boom is revving up again, even without turbocharging from ultra-low interest rates and pandemic-era stimulus. Replacing 2020 and 2021 models like Nikola, Canoo and Fisker are ventures such as self-driving trucking technology firm Plus Automation, which agreed on Thursday to go public through a cash-stuffed shell led by venture dealmaker Michael Klein. Autonomous vehicles may have kicked into a higher gear, but things look uncannily familiar under the hood.

Special-purpose acquisition companies have already raised some $11 billion this year, according to SPAC Research data, outpacing the entire 2024 haul. Plus CEO David Liu throws his startup’s $1.2 billion valuation onto a $23 billion heap of related mergers unveiled or completed in 2025.

Plus is teaming up with Churchill Capital IX CCIX.O, one of a series of shells spearheaded by former Citigroup investment banker Michael Klein. An investor presentation boasts of his biggest success: Oklo OKLO.N, a $7 billion nuclear reactor designer, whose shares have rocketed from the customary $10 opening price to over $48 since its 2024 combination.

Oklo, though, taps into artificial intelligence’s elemental hunger for stable power. It’s backed by Sam Altman, leader of the chatbot revolution. In contrast, three other consecutive Churchill SPACs have liquidated, failing to clinch a combination with a suitable target. Others found partners, but trade well below $10, adjusting for reverse stock splits. The list includes electric-vehicle maker Lucid LCID.O, which was part of a scramble of black-check deals chasing Tesla’s climb to a $1 trillion valuation. Lucid shares are now worth about $2, joining about 90% of the era’s stocks that have dropped below the benchmark.

A revival of such deals would benefit by attracting established private investors. Rival Aurora Innovation AUR.O did so in 2021, securing $1 billion. Kodiak Robotics, which unveiled a combination with an Ares Management-backed SPAC in April, nabbed $100 million. There’s no accompanying PIPE for Plus.

Plus and Kodiak compare themselves to $10 billion Aurora, both to comfort investors about the long road to profit and to tout various perceived advantages. The self-driving market is booming, with the technology seeming tantalizingly real, as robotic cabs traverse city streets worldwide.

Even so, the Plus presentation spends much time dreaming up the size of a potential market using vague math about saved labor costs. Interpreting one chart suggests revenue could be $200 million – or $1.5 billion.

This fantasy finance evokes past deals similarly premised on fledgling markets and parabolic growth. Moreover, Aurora shares are trading at less than $6. However fast new vehicle technology is accelerating, their financial engines are stuck in neutral.

Follow Jonathan Guilford on X and Linkedin.

CONTEXT NEWS

Plus Automation said on June 5 that it agreed to merge with Churchill Capital IX, a special-purpose acquisition company run by ex-Citigroup banker Michael Klein. The deal values the self-driving trucking technology startup at $1.2 billion before the injection of any new capital, and Churchill expects to provide up to $300 million in gross proceeds.

Rival Kodiak Robotics on April 14 unveiled a similar blank-check merger with Ares Acquisition II at a valuation of $2.5 billion.

(Editing by Jeffrey Goldfarb; Production by Pranav Kiran)

((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on GUILFORD/ Jonathan.Guilford@thomsonreuters.com))