Speculators boost net longs last week to highest since April
Spot gas prices drop to six-month low
Storage injections seen at 100+ bcf for record tying 7th week in a row
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
June 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% to a one-week low on Monday on an increase in output in recent days and a drop in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants due to ongoing spring maintenance at several facilities.
Gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 14.9 cents, or 3.9%, to settle at $3.635 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since May 30.
Fast-growing volumes of gas in storage have also helped keep futures prices in check in recent weeks.
Gas stockpiles are about 5% above normal for this time of year and analysts forecast energy firms made a record-tying, seventh triple-digit injection during the week ended June 6. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL
The last time energy firms added 100 bcf or more of gas into storage for seven weeks in a row was in June 2014, according to federal energy data going back to 2010.
Another factor keeping pressure on futures prices over the past month or so has been low cash prices.
Next-day gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana were trading around $2.68 per mmBtu, a six-month low, keeping spot contracts below front-month futures every day since late April.
Analysts have said that so long as spot prices remain far enough below front-month futures NGc1 to cover margin and storage costs, traders should be able to lock in arbitrage profits by buying spot gas, storing it and selling a futures contract.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has held at 105.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, the same as in May. That is down from a monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March due primarily to normal spring maintenance. Output so far this month is higher than LSEG projected on Friday when the average was just 104.8 bcfd in June.
Energy firms usually work on gas pipes and other equipment in the spring and autumn when demand for the fuel for heating and cooling is low.
Meteorologists project weather across the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 24.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 98.6 bcfd this week to 100.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 13.8 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
Traders said LNG feedgas reductions since April were primarily due to spring maintenance, including work at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass in Louisiana and 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi in Texas, and short, unplanned unit outages at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas on May 6, May 23, May 28 and June 3.
Energy traders have noted that LNG maintenance would likely continue through mid-June at Cameron and late-June at Sabine.
Week ended Jun 6 Forecast | Week ended May 30 Actual | Year ago Jun 6 | Five-year average Jun 6 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +105 | +122 | +77 | +87 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,703 | 2,598 | 2,963 | 2,568 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +5.3% | +4.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.71 | 3.78 | 2.81 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.96 | 12.11 | 10.87 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.46 | 12.42 | 12.30 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 15 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 182 | 172 | 189 | 160 | 148 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 191 | 181 | 200 | 172 | 163 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 104.9 | 105.6 | 105.5 | 100.9 | 96.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.5 | 7.9 | 7.2 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 112.4 | 113.5 | 112.7 | N/A | 104.1 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.3 | N/A | 6.3 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.5 | 13.6 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 9.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
U.S. Residential | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 34.5 | 38.4 | 39.8 | 38.1 | 38.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.3 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 21.6 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 72.9 | 76.1 | 77.5 | 75.3 | 76.8 |
Total U.S. Demand | 95.5 | 98.6 | 100.7 | N/A | 88.2 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 79 | 79 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 79 | 80 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 81 | 82 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jun 13 | Week ended Jun 6 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 40 | 40 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.68 | 2.86 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.52 | 1.88 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.20 | 3.17 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.50 | 1.76 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.49 | 2.71 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.25 | 2.73 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.45 | 3.49 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.87 | 1.68 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.75 | 0.91 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 41.17 | 41.17 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 36.16 | 46.09 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 85.45 | 44.49 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 50.57 | 39.46 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 31.29 | 22.82 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavinoEditing by Mark Potter and Nia Williams)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
免責聲明:投資有風險,本文並非投資建議,以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請,作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考,不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證,投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。