Hedge-fund managers are supposedly the smart money, so investors love to turn to them for stock ideas. But tracking company insiders is a better way to go; they're the "smartest money," says Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian.
Insiders are particularly worth following coming out of big market selloffs like the one we just went through. "During the last period of systemically stressed markets (2008 to 2010) our insider-buying strategy drove 19 percentage points of annualized alpha," Subramanian wrote in a recent research note.
"Alpha" means outperformance. So that's a fancy way of saying Bank of America's highest-ranked insider stocks knocked the lights out.
Thanks to U.S. securities laws, insiders have to reveal their buying activities to the public in almost real time. There are many ways to refine the insider signal in these filings. Personally, I favor purchases by insiders with good track records, and buys by C-suite managers who are closer to the business than directors. Cluster buys by groups of insiders enhance the signal.
Bank of America uses a simpler approach that can still be effective. It ranks companies by the number of shares bought in the past three months as a percentage of the float. Below are the top four names that rank the highest for insider buying and insider selling, using this approach. I also lay out the bullish trends that explain the insider buying - and why these stocks still look quite cheap.
1. Wynn Resorts $(WYNN)$: Wynn Resorts (WYNN) operates the Wynn Las Vegas, Encore Las Vegas and Encore Boston Harbor casinos. Overseas, it owns Wynn Macau and Wynn Palace in Macau in China. The company should post growth by expanding via the construction of the Wynn Al Marjan Island in the United Arab Emirates. Improved consumer confidence as recession and tariff fears ease will also help sales growth.
The insider activity: Since February 18, Wynn insiders have purchased an enormous $31.5 million worth of stock at $67.62 to $92.44. Most of the buying was from billionaire and seasoned entertainment-sector investor Tilman Fertitta through his firm Fertitta Entertainment. Fertitta owns the Houston Rockets NBA team, and he is no stranger to the gaming sector - he owns several Golden Nugget casinos. Though he does not work for Wynn, Fertitta is considered an insider because he owns a large stake. These insiders are called beneficial owners. Actual insiders are buying, too: Two directors bought $2.2 million worth of stock in February.
Valuation: Wynn looks cheap. It trades at a 43% to 50% discount to its trailing five-year average price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios, according to financial-data firm LSEG.
2. Occidental Petroleum $(OXY)$: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is a blue-chip energy company that holds prime assets in the Permian Basin in the Southwest U.S. The stock is down almost 30% in the past year, as the price of West Texas Intermediate $(WTI)$ crude oil (CL.1) has fallen. Oil prices are down due to concerns about global economic growth. WTI fell more than 15% following President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariff announcement on April 2.
Since then, WTI is up about 10% off its lows in early May, recently trading above $66. Oil may continue to trend higher on the so-called TACO trade - the view that Trump will continue to back down on imposing draconian tariffs. This would boost growth forecasts and Occidental Petroleum shares.
The insider activity: Investors who love to follow Warren Buffett should be in this name. So far this year, Berkshire Hathaway $(BRK.A)$ $(BRK.B)$ has purchased $35 million worth of Occidental stock at $46.82. But that's really just the tip of the iceberg. In the past three years, Berkshire has put $6.9 billion into this stock at prices of up to $63.05. It is Berkshire's seventh-largest investment. Buffett's position is so large that he is considered an insider, or a beneficial owner.
Oxy produces the kind of strong cash flow that Buffett loves to see - $2.1 billion in the first quarter of this year alone. It is also selling assets to improve its balance sheet. Oxy sold $1.3 billion worth of assets in the first quarter and repaid $2.3 billion in debt.
Valuation: Despite the stock's decline, it's still hard to make a strong valuation case for it, though the shares do trade at a discount. Occidental trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 1.5, which is a 6% discount to its five-year trailing average of 1.6, according to LSEG.
3. J.B. Hunt Transport Services $(JBHT)$: This is one of the largest trucking companies in North America. J.B. Hunt (JBHT) gets goods to where they need to go in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Its stock is down 16% this year so far on concerns that tariffs will cut into imports, hurting demand for trucking services.
At a May 20 shipping conference, J.B. Hunt Executive Vice President Darren Field said it's too early to tell how tariffs will impact the company's business. But through their buying, insiders are already telling us the stock's decline is an overreaction to the threat.
The insider activity: Back in February, a director bought $10 million worth of J.B. Hunt stock at prices of up to $169.48, according to LSEG. Then in late April, the chief operating officer bought $400,000 worth of stock at $130.75. This buying is a bet that fears about a U.S. recession and the impact of tariffs on growth are overblown.
Valuation: J.B. Hunt's stock looks cheap relative to its history. The stock trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 1.1, which is a 22% discount to the trailing five-year average.
4. Estée Lauder $(EL)$: This global beauty-products giant sells skin-care, makeup, hair-care and fragrance products in 150 countries.
The stock is down 44% in the past year. The good news for investors is that Estée Lauder (EL) is in turnaround mode under new management. Insiders buying their own turnarounds can often be a winning combination. Turnarounds typically take a lot of time, and insiders are often among the first to recognize they will work out. The company says it will return to sales growth in 2026.
Estée Lauder is trying to boost market share by rolling out new products. It's creating new sales channels - on Amazon $(AMZN)$ and TikTok, for example. It is also cutting costs by restructuring. Estée Lauder is cutting middle-management ranks by 20% and reducing executive expenses by 30%.
Tariffs are a threat, but the company says it is managing the problem by moving manufacturing from China to regional markets in North America, Europe and Japan.
The insider activity: In February, a director bought $8.7 million worth of stock at prices of up to $68.80, The same director bought a sizeable $24.9 million worth of stock at lower prices ($63.18 to $65.57) last November. Continued buying on strength like this (as opposed to profit-taking) is a bullish signal in insider-buying analysis. The chief financial officer bought $46,000 worth of stock in early February after buying $65,000 worth in November.
Valuation: On a price-to-sales basis, Estée Lauder looks very cheap. It's price-to-sales multiple of 1.1 is 64% below the trailing five-year average of 3, according to LSEG.
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