Middle East Escalation Fuels Upside Risk to Energy Prices, GS Says -- Market Talk

Dow Jones

2025/06/23

0259 GMT - Oil markets are pricing in a somewhat higher probability of supply disruptions after the latest escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, with the geopolitical risk premium estimated at $12, Goldman Sachs analysts say. "While we still assume no significant disruptions to oil and natural gas supply, the downside risks to energy supply and the upside risk to our energy price forecasts have risen." GS notes that the Polymarket prediction market now sees a high chance of Iran disrupting the key Strait of Hormuz shipping lane in 2025. A sustained, very large disruption would likely push oil and European natural gas prices above $110/bbl and EUR100/MWhm, respectively. The economic incentives--including for the U.S. and China--to try to prevent such a disruption are strong, GS says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 22, 2025 22:59 ET (02:59 GMT)

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A sustained, very large disruption would likely push oil and European natural gas prices above $110/bbl and EUR100/MWhm, respectively. The economic incentives--including for the U.S. and China--to try to prevent such a disruption are strong, GS says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  June 22, 2025 22:59 ET (02:59 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4127","symbol_name":"投資銀行業與經紀業","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","article_id":"2545463228","we_media_id":"106","thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2545463228","pubTimestamp":1750647540,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"Dow Jones","introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"summary":"Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK6000":"餐馆","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","BK6054":"综合支持服务","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK6520":"工商业服务概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","43A.SI":"伟盛有限公司","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"GS表示，中东局势升级加剧了能源价格的上行风险——市场讨论","themeId":"7725ed284141b09397df9b1929c3f8bc","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"43A.SI":1},"content_text":"0259 GMT - Oil markets are pricing in a somewhat higher probability of supply disruptions after the latest escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, with the geopolitical risk premium estimated at $12, Goldman Sachs analysts say. \"While we still assume no significant disruptions to oil and natural gas supply, the downside risks to energy supply and the upside risk to our energy price forecasts have risen.\" GS notes that the Polymarket prediction market now sees a high chance of Iran disrupting the key Strait of Hormuz shipping lane in 2025. 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