Despite mounting geopolitical tensions and growing macroeconomic uncertainty, on-chain data suggests the Bitcoin bull cycle is far from over. 

Instead of signalling exhaustion, metrics that track investor behaviour reveal that BTC may still have significant room to run in this cycle. This analysis explores how. 

Whales Pile In, Retail Investors Exit

According to a recent report by pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech, BTC large holders — typically whales, institutions, and funds — have steadily increased their coin accumulation over the past year. This is in sharp divergence with the trend amongst retail investors who continue to offload their holdings. 

IT Tech found that the number of coins held by retail investors (wallets holding less than 1 BTC) has declined over the past year. These wallets currently hold 1.69 million BTC, representing a year-on-year drop of 54,500 BTC, with an average outflow of around 220 BTC daily. 

In contrast, larger holders with 1,000 BTC or more are aggressively accumulating the coin. This group of investors now controls 16.57 million BTC, an increase of 507,700 BTC over the past year. 

Their average daily inflow stands at 1,460 BTC, highlighting the demand from institutional players even amid its recent price troubles. Also, this cohort shows a strong positive correlation with BTC’s price, at +0.86, suggesting that institutional accumulation intensifies as prices rise. 

Furthermore, the report stated that the current BTC cycle lacks retail-driven fear of missing out (FOMO). Unlike previous bull cycle tops, where retail investors piled into the market, the current cycle shows continued selling pressure from these small holders. IT Tech noted that this means “the bull run still has room.”

Will It Break Past the $109,000 Resistance?

Since the announcement of the Israel-Iran ceasefire on Monday, BTC’s price has been on a gradual uptrend. Trading at $107,698 at press time, its value has risen by 2% since the news broke.

Moreover, its rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms the buy-side pressure supporting this rally. As of this writing, the RSI stands at 57.15 and climbing, signaling a steady increase in demand for the king coin.

The RSI indicator measures an asset’s overbought and oversold market conditions. It ranges between 0 and 100. Values above 70 suggest that the asset is overbought and due for a price decline, while values under 30 indicate that the asset is oversold and may witness a rebound.

With the RSI at 57.15 and rising, BTC’s growing demand could push its price above the resistance at $109,267, potentially moving toward its all-time high of $111,968.

However, if demand weakens, BTC’s price could pull back to $106,295. A failure to hold this support may result in a further decline toward $103,952.