Key points:

• Bitcoin is tipped to gain as the S&P 500 starts a month that has been green for the past decade.

• Maximum July losses for BTC/USD are currently under 10%.

• Weak price action at the start of the month is nothing to worry about, traders suggest.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders expect one of its best-performing months, even as July starts in the red.

The latest BTC price forecasts see BTC/USD copying US stock markets to enjoy fresh gains over the coming month.

Bitcoin traders see BTC price tracking stocks

Bitcoin should end July firmly bullish as historical data favors solid risk-asset returns over the coming 30 days.

As noted by trader Mikybull Crypto, the seventh month of the year has proved to be a success for US stocks, with the S&P 500 seeing 10 straight “green” July months in a row.

IT HASN'T BEEN A RED JULY FOR THE PAST DECADES GOOD FOR ALTS AND BITCOIN pic.twitter.com/xfthRExpcY

— Mikybull 🐂Crypto (@MikybullCrypto) July 1, 2025

July has been even more lucrative than May and June, both of which have only ended “red” for the S&P 500 once or twice since 2015.

For BTC/USD, the picture is rather more mixed. Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that May and June have witnessed wide variations in price performance, while July has fared better, with maximum losses under 10%.

“Bitcoin on the edge of breaking out and likely to match the S&P for new ATHs in July,” fellow trader Crypto Fella told X followers over the weekend.

Double top and double bottom for Bitcoin

Despite the optimism, BTC/USD began July in a lackluster style, dropping to month-to-date lows under $106,500 at the time of writing.

Related: Record Q2, monthly close next? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

CoinGlass confirmed a band of bid support in place starting at $106,200, with shorts above $108,000 still untouched. 

Commenting on the current setup, trader Daan Crypto Trades was among those unfazed by the absence of new attacks on all-time highs.

“Still consolidating in this current range and channel,” he wrote on X. 

“With a new month and quarter, we often see a choppy start after which price chooses a direction later on. Give it some time to play out and watch for confirmations.”

Continuing, trader and commentator Trader Tardigrade saw the potential for further support retests before resolution higher.

“Bitcoin has formed a Double Top and a Double Bottom pattern within the consolidating range of $101k to $109k,” he noted alongside the 3-day BTC/USD chart. 

“The internal support/resistance could be tested again before breaking $109k range high.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.