美元疲軟對美國意味着什麼？

英為財情

2025/07/06

Investing.com - 摩根士丹利策略師在最近的一份報告中表示，美元近期的下跌"僅是中場休息，而非終局"。 "我們認為歐元/美元達到1.17並非終點，而更接近於中場休息，"他們寫道，預計美元將繼續走弱直至2027年。該銀行認為，美元貶值在短期內對美國整體經濟的影響將相對溫和。他們的模型顯示，美元下跌1%大約會使整體CPI和GDP同時上升5個點子。由David S. Adams領導的...

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Adams領導的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/forex-news/article-2873699\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investing_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美元疲軟對美國意味着什麼？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美元疲軟對美國意味着什麼？\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">英為財情</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2025-07-06 17:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investing.com - 摩根士丹利策略師在最近的一份報告中表示，美元近期的下跌\"僅是中場休息，而非終局\"。\n\"我們認為歐元/美元達到1.17並非終點，而更接近於中場休息，\"他們寫道，預計美元將繼續走弱直至2027年。\n該銀行認為，美元貶值在短期內對美國整體經濟的影響將相對溫和。他們的模型顯示，美元下跌1%大約會使整體CPI和GDP同時上升5個點子。\n由David S. Adams領導的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/forex-news/article-2873699\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/forex-news/article-2873699\">英為財情</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0157215616.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/forex-news/article-2873699","article_id":"2549518376","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"investing_news","url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/forex-news/article-2873699","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2549518376","pubTimestamp":1751794500,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"investing_news","name":"英为财情新闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Investing.com - 摩根士丹利策略師在最近的一份報告中表示，美元近期的下跌\"僅是中場休息，而非終局\"。該銀行認為，美元貶值在短期內對美國整體經濟的影響將相對温和。他們的模型顯示，美元下跌1%大約會使整體CPI和GDP同時上升5個點子。美元走弱對那些在海外產生大量收入的跨國公司來説是一個有利因素。這可能進一步減少對美元的需求並強化其下跌趨勢。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"investing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","XOM":"埃克森美孚","CRM":"赛富时","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1989763005.USD":"东方汇理教育基金A2 Acc","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1564329461.SGD":"Blackrock Dynamic High Income A6 SGD-H","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","LU2361044949.HKD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0472753341.HKD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2065169927.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2168564222.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU1043141396.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","PG":"宝洁","LU2404859741.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) INC","LU1929549753.HKD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1236620834.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE LONG TERM DIVIDEND \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1989773731.SGD":"CPR Invest - Education A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","LU0690374615.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","MSFT":"微软","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","MA":"万事达","LU0994945656.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) INC 2","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2462611646.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS REAL ASSETS TARGET INCOME \"A2\" (USD) INC MTI","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU2298321311.HKD":"BGF CIRCULAR ECONOMY \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0368265418.SGD":"Blackrock World Energy Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0788109477.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC"},"translate_title":"What Does a Weak Dollar Mean for the United States?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"XOM":1,"CRM":1,"MA":1,"MSFT":1,"PG":1},"content_text":"Investing.com - 摩根士丹利策略師在最近的一份報告中表示，美元近期的下跌\"僅是中場休息，而非終局\"。\n\"我們認為歐元/美元達到1.17並非終點，而更接近於中場休息，\"他們寫道，預計美元將繼續走弱直至2027年。\n該銀行認為，美元貶值在短期內對美國整體經濟的影響將相對温和。他們的模型顯示，美元下跌1%大約會使整體CPI和GDP同時上升5個點子。\n由David S. Adams領導的策略師團隊寫道：\"我們預計近期的匯率貶值不會對宏觀經濟產生顯著的整體影響，\"他們指出，與其他國家相比，美國經濟相對封閉，對貨幣驅動的貿易衝擊敏感度較低。\n通脹壓力預計主要將在未來六個月內顯現，該銀行預測在未來一年內整體CPI將上升約20個點子。核心通脹則被認為基本不受影響。\n然而，對美國企業的影響則更為顯著。美元走弱對那些在海外產生大量收入的跨國公司來説是一個有利因素。這些公司在將海外收益兑換回美元時能夠從貨幣轉換效應中受益。\n\"我們認為美元走弱是美國跨國公司盈利的一個重要但被低估的有利因素，\"該團隊表示。\n具有全球業務的大型企業，特別是在科技、材料和工業等板塊的公司，將獲得最大收益。\n該銀行篩選了外國收入佔比超過15%且被其分析師評為\"增持\"的高質量股票，在能源、醫療保健、金融和科技等多個行業中確定了幾隻大盤股。\n這些股票包括微軟(NASDAQ:MSFT)、Salesforce(NYSE:CRM)、埃克森美孚(NYSE:XOM)、寶潔公司(NYSE:PG)和萬事達(NYSE:MA)等。\n策略師們指出，當前的外匯動態也可能影響企業的對沖交易行為。他們指出，企業往往在美元走強期間增加對沖比率，但隨着美元走軟，可能會減少對沖。這可能進一步減少對美元的需求並強化其下跌趨勢。\n\"美元仍處於歷史區間的上端，對沖交易和指數再平衡帶來的順周期性是重要的放大因素，\"報告指出。\n此外，該報告還指出了結構性影響。隨着美元走弱，美國在全球債券和股票指數中的份額可能下降，這可能導致流入美國資產的被動資金減少。\n儘管聯儲局預計不會因美元走弱而顯著改變其貨幣政策立場，但摩根士丹利認為，隨着時間推移，聯儲局將逐漸轉向更加温和的立場。\n不過，單憑美元貶值並不被視為促使政策立即改變的催化劑，特別是考慮到其對核心通脹的傳導效應有限。\n本文由人工智能協助翻譯。更多信息，請參見我們的使用條款。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}