MW Stock indexes are back near record highs - even if individual stocks aren't

By Joy Wiltermuth

The stock market's rally since June hinged on only a handful of familiar technology names

Stocks on Thursday were shaking off earlier weakness following President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats, with all three major U.S. indexes only a short distance away from record highs.

That's been reassuring, given that Trump has vowed to implement his delayed "reciprocal" tariffs on Aug. 1 - as well as new ones - unless global trade partners come to the table with trade deals.

Yet a look under the hood of the rally by Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, shows the latest leg higher for the stock market hinged on only a handful of familiar technology names.

Turnquist points out that, since June, when the S&P 500 index SPX broke above its previous high of 6,144, notched on Feb. 19, shares of Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Microsoft Corp. $(MSFT.UK)$, Meta Platforms Inc. $(META)$, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) and Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN.UK)$ have contributed over half of the index's 5.2% total return.

The bar chart below spells out the moves in more detail, with the S&P 500 ending Wednesday only 0.2% off its record high, but its median stock - represented by the green bar - trading about 12% below peak levels.

The chart also shows the distance of the S&P 500's 11 sectors - the brown lines - from their 52-week highs, as well as their median constituent's - the dark-blue bars - levels from their one-year peaks.

The S&P 500 was up 0.2% Tuesday, only a few points below its 6,279.35 record close, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA was up 0.5%, at 44,675. It would need to close above its previous 45,014.04 record finish, achieved on Dec. 4, 2024, to register its first record high this year, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The resilience in stocks comes even as Trump in recent days has been sending out more than a dozen letters to individual countries with new tariff levels, mostly in a range of 25% to 40%. He also threatened a 50% tariff on imported copper(HG00) and a 50% tariff against Brazil, accusing its current government of a "witch hunt" in its prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, the former president and a Trump ally, over his alleged attempt to remain in office after an electoral loss.

From the archives (June 2023): Brazil court bars Bolsonaro from seeking public office until 2030 over false claims of election fraud

Wall Street has been largely viewing Trump tariff levels as flexible, given Trump's emerging negotiation style. That's a departure from three months ago when similar threats put the S&P 500 into a near-20% downward spiral. Stocks quickly recovered after most of the "reciprocal" tariffs were paused.

Such tariff reprieves have prompted dip buying in stocks and bonds.

Financial assets still could be vulnerable if tariffs ultimately shake out at much higher levels, which could push up prices for American consumers, serving as drags on corporate earnings and the U.S. economy.

Read on: Consumers are still struggling, as inflation is a problem again, this food company says

-Joy Wiltermuth

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July 10, 2025 13:14 ET (17:14 GMT)

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