US corn futures rose during the week as market participants said that recent price declines were overdone and after the US announced it had secured a trade deal with Vietnam, with optimism that agreements will soon be reached with India and China.

Prices fell early in the week after the USDA projected that the country’s farmers will plant the third highest total acreage in data going back to 1944 and also reported that crop conditions improved more than it was expected by analysts.

FOB US Gulf corn prices climbed by $4.00 per tonne since June 27 to $195.25 per tonne on Thursday, while FOB US PNW prices advanced by $4.50 per tonne to $208.75 per tonne.

The corn planted area for all purposes in 2025 is estimated at 95.2 million acres, up by 4.61 million acres, or 5%, from the previous year’s 90.59 million acres, according to the USDA Acreage report released on Monday.

The average estimate of analysts before the report was 95.35 million acres, while the USDA projected that farmers would plant 95.3 million acres of corn in its Prospective Plantings report on March 31.

The USDA also reported on Monday that the country’s corn stocks in all positions on June 1 totaled 4.64 billion bu (207 million tonnes), down by 7% from a year earlier and in line with the average of market estimates, according to the quarterly stocks outlook.

Prior to the report, analysts projected that reserves would come in at 4.641 billion bu, with individual forecasts ranging from 4.473 million bu to 4.798 billion bu.

Corn crop conditions in the US were rated good-to-excellent for 73% of this year’s crop in the week ended Sunday June 29, up from 70% in the previous week and from 67% at the same point in 2024, according to the USDA’s latest crop progress report released late on Monday.

Crop conditions of corn were higher than the 70% good-to-excellent expected by market participants surveyed before the release of the USDA report.

US weekly corn net sales for the 2024/25 marketing year totaled 532,700 tonnes in the week to June 26, down by 28% from the previous week and by 37% from the four-week average, according to data published by the USDA on Thursday.

The weekly figure is within market participants’ expectations of 400,000 tonnes-700,000 tonnes.

Forward export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year totaled 940,200, which was above market participants’ expectations of 500,000 tonnes-700,000 tonnes.

Export shipments for the 2024/25 marketing year totaled 1,465,600 tonnes in the week to June 26, which were nearly unchanged from the previous week and down by 11% from the four-week average.

Ukraine prices were stable

In Ukraine, prices were stable throughout the week due to a lack of liquidity, and traders were mostly looking forward to the new crop trading.

Selling prices were heard in a range of $238-245 per tonne for July-August shipment, with buying interest heard in a range of $230-233 per tonne FOB POC.

On the domestic DAP market, several buyers were still covering their previously concluded sales and were steady with prices up to $223 per tonne for spot delivery.

New crop buying interest was heard at $198-200 per tonne DAP POC for November delivery, while sellers on the FOB basis were indicating $216-220 per tonne FOB POC for November shipment.

In South America, Brazil’s FOB Santos corn price for August loading rose by $6.25 per tonne from June 27 to $210.50 per tonne on Thursday, while Argentina’s August-loading corn price increased by $3.00 per tonne to $200.25 per tonne over the same period.

Argentina’s corn harvest reached 61.7% of the harvestable area of 6.98 million hectares. Fieldwork advanced by 5.7 percentage points over the week, according to the latest report from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) released on Thursday.

The corn export license applications (DJVE) in Argentina totaled 7.6 million tonnes in June, compared with 3.2 million tonnes in May, as it was the last month of lower export taxes for the soybean complex and corn.

On Tuesday July 1, the corn export tax returned to 12% from the previous 9.5% reduced tax valid since January 27.

In the case of corn, although the volume traded decreased, the drop was less abrupt after the increase in taxes, according to data from the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR).

From an average volume of 230,000 tonnes registered before Monday, trading barely fell to around 200,000 tonnes on Tuesday and then stabilized at 130,000 tonnes on Wednesday and Thursday of the current week, BCR said on Friday.

In Brazil, total corn production is expected to reach 130.4 million tonnes in 2025/26, in line with the 130 million tonnes expected for the current crop year, local consultancy Itaú BBA said on Thursday.

Brazilian local consultancy Céleres expects the country’s second corn crop to reach 119.4 million tonnes in 2024/25, up by 18% from the 101.2 million tonnes in 2023/24. The figure is higher than the previous forecast of 107.2 million tonnes.

Wheat prices

In the cash market, not many tenders were concluded during the week to Friday July 4, with only Jordan’s MIT booking 60,000 tonnes of wheat from Buildcom at $255.50 per tonne CFR Aqaba for shipment in the second half of September but skipping the tender for feed barley.

In Australia, prices were heard stronger during the week amid a strengthening national currency.

Australian premium white (APW) wheat prices were up by $3 per tonne through the week to $260 per tonne for August loading, along with Australian standard white (ASW) also increasing by $4 per tonne to $254 per tonne FOB Western ports.

In the Black Sea region, wheat prices for July loading rose in both Ukraine and Russia amid ongoing short covering due to delayed harvests and subsequent port delivery delays.

That has also pushed some wheat prices for August delivery as well, with Fastmarkets’ assessment for Russian 12.5% wheat up by $3 per tonne to $228 per tonne FOB for August shipment, while 11.5% wheat was at $221 per tonne FOB, but price ideas for that grade were generally scarce.

At the same time, the price assessment for Ukrainian 11.5% wheat went up by $1 per tonne to $220 per tonne for August loading, while feed wheat assessment decreased by $1 per tonne to $210 per tonne FOB Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC).

In North America, prices for US Gulf hard red winter (HRW), US soft red winter (SRW), Pacific Northwest (PNW) soft white (SW) and Canada western red spring (CWRS) wheat advanced.

The overall price for FOB US Gulf HRW 11% wheat has increased by $1.75 per tonne since June 27 to $233.00 per tonne on Thursday July 3.

Meanwhile, the FOB US Gulf SRW 10.5% wheat price climbed by $7.25 per tonne to $224.75 per tonne and the FOB US PNW SW 10% wheat price rose by $7.75 per tonne to $234.25 per tonne. The FOB Canada CWRS 13.5% wheat price advanced by $9.75 per tonne to $291.00 per tonne.

Chicago SRW, Kansas HRW and Minneapolis HRS wheat futures rose after the USDA lowered its estimate of US wheat planting area and amid declining crop conditions.

All wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated to total 45.48 million acres, down by 1.3% from 46.08 million acres in 2024, according to the USDA Acreage report released on Monday June 30.

The average estimate of analysts for the total wheat area was 45.44 million acres, while the March USDA outlook projected 45.4 million acres.

The USDA reported that US wheat stocks stood at 851 million bushels (bu) on June 1, up by 22% from a year earlier and higher than the average trade forecast of 836 million bu, according to the quarterly stocks outlook update also released on Monday.

Spring wheat conditions were rated good-to-excellent for 53% of this year’s crop in the week ended June 22, down from 54% the previous week and 72% at the same point in 2024, according to the USDA’s latest crop progress report released late on Monday.

Before the report, market participants expected 56% of the spring wheat crop would be good-to-excellent.

Winter wheat conditions were rated good-to-excellent for 48% of this year’s crop, down from 49% last week and 51% at the corresponding period of 2024.

This was lower than the 49% expected by market participants surveyed before the release of the USDA report.

US weekly wheat net sales for the 2025/26 crop year totaled 586,000 tonnes in the week to June 26, according to data published by the USDA on Thursday.

The figure is at the upper end of market participants’ expectations, which ranged from 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes, sources told Fastmarkets.

Actual exports of 553,500 tonnes were shipped in the week to June 26, according to the USDA.

In Canada, durum prices were unchanged, with FOB Vancouver 14.5% wheat cargoes at $310 per tonne on Friday and St Lawrence cargoes unchanged at $320 per tonne.

In Argentina, 11.5% FOB Up River wheat declined by $5.00 per tonne to $227 per tonne.

In Europe, wheat FOB cargo prices for August loading were lower on the week, with Polish FOB 12.5% wheat cargoes down by $3.35 per tonne to $240 per tonne, while Baltic 12.5% wheat on an FOB basis was down by $2.50 per tonne to $236.25 per tonne.

German FOB 12.5% wheat was up by $1.25 per tonne to $247 per tonne, with little activity taking place due to lower prices from competing origins in the region.

French 11% wheat cargoes were up by $2.75 on the week to $233.50 per tonne, while offers for August loading dates were heard around €1 per tonne above the September Euronext wheat contract.

In the European Black Sea region, FOB 12.5% FOB Constanta, Varna, Burgas (CVB) cargoes were up on the week by $3.75 per tonne to $234.50 per tonne, while 11.5% wheat on an FOB CVB basis rose on the week, up by $3 per tonne to $230 per tonne.