TradingKey - ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) is set to announce its Q2 2025 earnings on Wednesday, July 16, 2025, before market open, with the press release issued at 07:00 CET, followed by a 60-minute investor call at 15:00 CET.
Market Forecast
Metric | Q2 FY2025 Estimate | Q2 FY2024 Actual | Change |
Total Revenue | €7.45B | €6.24B | +19.4% |
EPS | €5.6 | €4.01 | +40% |
Net Bookings | €4.8B | €5.6B | -14.3% |
Order Backlog | €37.5B | €39.1B | -4.1% |
Gross Margin | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0% |
R&D | €1.2B | €1.1B | +9.1% |
Where Investors Should Watch
ASML’s Q2 performance is driven by its monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, critical for 7nm and below semiconductor nodes used in AI, 5G, and high-performance computing chips. EUV systems account for ~40% of net system sales, with growing adoption of High NA EUV tools by foundries like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung for sub-3nm processes. However, deep ultraviolet (DUV) system sales, used for mature nodes, are expected to decline slightly as customers shift to EUV.
The order backlog ensures long-term revenue visibility, but net bookings are a key near-term indicator. A low than expected net bookings could signal caution from Logic customers (60% of Q1 bookings), potentially due to U.S.-China trade tensions. Tariff risks remain significant, with approximately 27% of Q1 2025 revenue coming from China. U.S. export controls and potential new tariffs could disrupt sales or raise costs, pressuring the gross margin.
Investors should monitor management’s commentary on supply chain constraints for critical components, and pricing power for EUV systems, which supports profitability. ASML’s €9.1B cash position (Q1 2025) funds its €2.7B share buyback program and modest dividends, but shipment delays could impact free cash flow. Guidance on 2026 growth, the rebalancing of China demand toward Taiwan or South Korea, and the adoption of High-NA EUV systems will be important factors shaping market sentiment.
Conclusion
ASML’s Q2 2025 earnings should affirm its leadership in semiconductor equipment, driven by its EUV technology moat and AI-fueled demand. Tariff uncertainties and DUV sales declines pose near-term risks, but strategic R&D investments and resilient bookings position ASML for long-term dominance. Investors should expect ASML to navigate trade challenges while sustaining profitability, reinforcing its critical role in the chip industry.
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