Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) House Price Index data indicates that there is downside risk to the forecast that house prices could rise 2.5% year-over-year at the end of the year, adding to other high-frequency indicators suggesting that New Zealand's economic recovery is slowing, and to evidence which suggests further interest rate cuts are needed to prevent medium-term inflation from undershooting target, ANZ Group (ASX:ANZ, NZE:ANZ) said in a Tuesday report.

The seasonally adjusted REINZ House Price Index fell 0.3% month-over-month in June, with 12 of the 16 regions recording monthly falls, while the 0.1% increase for May was revised down to flat.

House prices rose just 1.1% from their last low point in October 2024.

Seasonally-adjusted sales volumes declined 4.3% month-over-month, falling back below their long-run average. May sales volumes were revised higher to a fall of 0.8% month-over-month from 2.4%.

Median days to sell rose to 48 in June from 46 in May, the highest since the start of the year and hovering above their historic average of 39.

The total housing market inventory is holding steady around its highest level in around a decade.