TradingKey - Wells Fargo will release its 2Q25 earnings on July 15th before the market opens. The expectations for the quarter are the following:
· 2Q25 Earnings per share: $1.41 estimate vs 2Q24 actual of $1.33 (+6% y/y)
· 2Q25 Revenue: $20.76bn estimate vs 2Q24 actual of $20.69bn (+3% y/y)
NII and Fees Growth: The current economic uncertainty might have weighed on the loan business and the net interest income as a whole. The market expectations for exceptional loan performance are not very high, but we see commercial loans doing slightly better than personal ones. Fees from wealth management and investment banking will also be under scrutiny.
Life after the cap removal: These earnings will be the first after WFC saw its asset cap ($1.9tn) being removed in early June. Thus, the market is excited to see what the asset plans for the company in the near/mid-term future are. The cap was imposed by the Fed in 2018 due to the infamous fake account scandal. With the cap being active in the last seven years, WFC lagged way behind JP Morgan ($4.1tn), Bank of America ($3.3tn) and Citi ($2.4tn).
With no restriction, the bank will be able to increase the deposits they hold, expand their loan portfolio towards more lucrative opportunities and acquire more high return securities.
In addition, to the operational benefits, the lack of cap will increase the flexibility of Wells Fargo to increase share buybacks and dividends, another important element of the company appeal towards shareholders.
In the context of short-term macro headwinds and tariff uncertainty, we believe the focus would be on the expanding the bank’s assets now after there is no regulatory restriction anymore.
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