The geopolitical risk premium for oil decreased after the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, although trade tensions are escalating, and elevated inflation expectations as well as strong economic data are weighing on expectations around the number of US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, according to ANZ Group Holdings (ASX:ANZ, NZE:ANZ) in a Tuesday report.

Oil prices fell below $70-per-barrel, with renewed trade tensions dampening demand outlook and as an increase in Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus production adds to global supply.

The supply hikes by OPEC+ have been lower than promised, with actual volumes rising only around 548,000 barrels-per-day, despite a hike of 848,000 barrels-per-day, the analysts said. US oil production is slowing due to a drop in rig counts, as firms respond to lower oil prices and a peak in demand prospects. Oil demand appears mixed and strong refinery margins support robust processing.

US summer oil demand has been weaker so far. China's oil demand is showing signs of improvement as reflected in imports.

The "buy-on-dip strategy" is protecting downside risks for gold prices, while easing US Treasury yields, and a strengthening US dollar limits gold's upside. Platinum and silver prices have kept their upward momentum, driven by tighter spot availability and reflected in a surge in lease rates. An undersupplied market backdrop and cheaper valuation against gold have lifted the metals' prices to a multi-year high.

There are signs of slowing metals demand, following a front-loading by US buyers and restocking by China in the first half of the current year. These are impacting prices. LME inventories are recovering after a recent sharp drop, especially for copper and aluminum.

Global copper mine production is up more than 5% year-over-year, and refined production rose by 10% year-over-year in June. China's increasing investment in its power grid and clean-energy technologies is structurally bolstering demand for copper.

Iron ore prices have risen to $100-per-tonne, with improving steel mill margins boosting the prospects of steel production in the short term. Iron ore shipments from Brazil and Australia were strong. Falling seasonal steel inventories can also offset the closure of non-efficient steel-making plants. Steel production dropped 3% year-over-year in the first half.