MW The S&P 500 just did something it's only done four times in 50 years. Here's what happened next.

By Steve Goldstein

Key U.S. index has been holding above its 20-day average.

Japan is in the spotlight Wednesday after it struck a tentative trade deal with the U.S. as its prime minister may (or may not) say 'sayonara.'

The tariff news only added to optimism heading into what can only be labelled a soft Aug. 1 tariff deadline, that even President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent say isn't set in stone.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, uncovered an eye-popping stat about the current state of play.

The S&P 500 SPX on Monday closed above its 20-day moving average for 60 days in a row. (There was a near violation on June 20, but the index closed high enough to keep the streak alive.) Going back 50 years, a run of that long has only happened four times since 1950. The average gain a year later was between 20% and 26%, says Detrick.

He also charted S&P 500 performance after 60 days above the 20-day moving average, which has happened eight times before, but now for the first time in the 21st century. There was one instance, in 1965, when the market was lower in 12 months time, but the median gain was 10.4% and the average gain was 9.2%.

"It is what it is, yet another clue this bull market has legs," says Detrick.

The bearish take, of course, is that it's a sign of market over-exuberance, the view from another market technician who noted a similar streak for the Nasdaq 100.

The market

Stock-market futures (ES00) (NQ00) were advancing after the Japanese tariff deal, which sent the Nikkei 225 JP:NIK in Tokyo up over 3%. The 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Yrose.

   Key asset performance                                                Last       5d      1m      YTD     1y 
   S&P 500                                                              6309.62    0.73%   3.57%   7.28%   16.26% 
   Nasdaq Composite                                                     20,892.68  0.78%   4.60%   8.19%   20.47% 
   10-year Treasury                                                     4.377      -8.60   8.50    -19.90  8.40 
   Gold                                                                 3443.4     3.39%   3.14%   30.47%  42.84% 
   Oil                                                                  64.96      -2.68%  -0.08%  -9.61%  -16.15% 
   Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points 

The buzz

President Donald Trump said Japan will receive a 15% tariff and invest $550 billion in the U.S., as he discussed a venture with Japan on a liquefied natural gas project in Alaska.

Tech giants Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla $(TSLA)$ and IBM $(IBM)$ report results after the close. Ahead of the open, AT&T $(T)$ and GE Vernova are set to release financials. Related: Alphabet investors will get a first read on this AI trend.

Texas Instruments (TXN) shares were under pressure after the chipmaker's cautious outlook.

SAP $(SAP)$ said some clients were taking longer to sign up for services due to tariff uncertainty.

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The chart

A pretty fascinating chart courtesy of Duality Research, which found Tuesday that the S&P 500 registered the best breadth with the smallest gain, since 1996. Even more striking was that a week ago, almost the opposite happened, with the best performance on a day when most components were down.

Random reads

Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

   Ticker  Security name 
   TSLA    Tesla 
   NVDA    Nvidia 
   GME     GameStop 
   OPEN    Opendoor Technologies 
   NIO     Nio 
   PLTR    Palantir Technologies 
   AAPL    Apple 
   KSS     Kohl's 
   PLUS    ePlus 
   AMD     Advanced Micro Devices 

Random reads

The political wisdom of heavy metal icon Ozzy Osbourne, who died aged 76.

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A professional tennis player's award for winning a tournament was a miniature shipping container.

-Steve Goldstein

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July 23, 2025 06:30 ET (10:30 GMT)

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