With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 36.3x Watsco, Inc. (NYSE:WSO) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
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With earnings growth that's inferior to most other companies of late, Watsco has been relatively sluggish. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this lacklustre earnings performance will improve markedly. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
View our latest analysis for Watsco
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Watsco would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 5.4% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 13% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 10% per year, which is noticeably less attractive.
With this information, we can see why Watsco is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of Watsco's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - Watsco has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
Discover if Watsco might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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