NCino (NCNO) is expected to continue beating expectations and raising guidance throughout the year, with more visibility into quarterly annual contract value, or ACV, trends supporting further upside, Morgan Stanley said in a note on Monday.

For fiscal 2026, Morgan Stanley estimates revenue of $582.1 million and adjusted EBITDA of $124.8 million.

"With the bar now materially lower, [it] creates a more achievable setup throughout FY26 with upside drivers into FY27," the analysts said.

The analysts said that 15% of revenue comes from nCino's new pricing model, split evenly between mortgage and the core business.

With the remaining 85% less 7.5% mortgage, 77.5% of revenue still needs to transition, and the company's subscription revenue is expected to increase by 1.9% as renewals occur, assuming churn remains at about 3% and nCino executes one-time 10% price increases across renewing contracts, the analysts added.

The consensus is only factoring in 0.68% rise in subscription revenue growth in fiscal year 2027, so this could represent an upside driver to estimates all else equal, the analysts said, adding, "further, as revenue transitions to the new model, nCino will benefit from an annual assessment of asset growth at a particular client, which the company expects to result in a durable 2 to 3 percentage points pricing tailwind beyond the one-time 10% price increase."

Morgan Stanley raised its fiscal year 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate for nCino to $162.6 million from $159.9 million. The firm also boosted the company's price target to $33 from $29 while maintaining its equalweight rating.

Price: 30.62, Change: +0.01, Percent Change: +0.03