MW American Airlines warns of a surprise loss amid concerns over future travel demand

By Steve Gelsi

Airline reports improvement in managing 'disruptive operational events,' such as dangerous summer storms

American Airlines Group Inc.'s stock dropped in early trading Thursday after the carrier warned that it would book a surprise loss for the current quarter, as it took a cautious outlook on potential weakness in the economy.

American Airlines projected a third-quarter adjusted loss, which excludes nonrecurring items, of 10 cents a share to 60 cents a share, while the FactSet consensus estimate was for a profit of 3 cents a share.

The stock $(AAL.UK)$ fell 4.7% in premarket trading, which puts it on track to snap a five-week winning streak.

For calendar year 2025, American Airlines $(AAL.AU)$ now projects a loss of 20 cents a share to earnings of 80 cents a share, while analysts surveyed by FactSet are expecting, on average, earnings of 72 cents a share.

"The company believes the top end of the range is achievable if demand in the domestic market continues to strengthen and only expects to be at the bottom end of the range if there were to be macro weaknesses that are not seen today," the carrier said.

The company said it's basing those projections on current booked revenue, expectations of fuel prices and demand trends and breaking out special items.

American Airlines reported second-quarter net income that fell 16.5% to $599 million, while adjusted profit fell 95 cents a share from $1.09 but was well ahead of the FactSet consensus estimate of 78 cents a share.

Revenue increased by 0.4% to $14.39 billion, a record that beat the analyst estimate of $14.29 billion.

That comes even as American Airlines said it faced a 36% increase in disruptive operational events in the second quarter due mostly to increased storm activity at the airline's hubs in Dallas-Fort Worth, Chicago, Washington, D.C., and the Northeast.

"American continues to demonstrate its ability to quickly recover from irregular operations, and its investments in technology are driving additional enhancements to both reliability and the customer experience," the company said.

Ahead of Thursday's moves, American Airlines stock has fallen 27.3% in 2025, while the U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS has edged up 0.8% and the S&P 500 index SPX has advanced 8.1%.

-Steve Gelsi

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July 24, 2025 07:57 ET (11:57 GMT)

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