Rio Tinto's First-Half Profit, Dividend Expected to Fall -- Earnings Preview

Dow Jones
2025/07/29
 

By Rhiannon Hoyle

 

Rio Tinto is scheduled to release its half-year results on Wednesday after the Australian market closes. Here's what you need to know:

 

EARNINGS: The world's second-biggest miner by market value is expected to report underlying earnings of $5.01 billion for the six months ended June 30, according to a consensus estimate collated by Visible Alpha. A year ago, the company reported first-half underlying earnings of $5.75 billion.

 

DIVIDEND: Rio Tinto is expected to pay an interim dividend of $1.56 a share, according to Visible Alpha, down from $1.77 a share last year.

 

The miner's Australia-listed stock is little changed on the start of 2025.

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

- Rio Tinto earlier this month said it will elevate its iron-ore boss, Simon Trott, to be its next chief executive, starting Aug. 25. While it is unlikely that Trott will be vocal on his plans for the company until he begins in the role, investors will be eager to hear anything the incoming CEO may share in terms of his priorities going forward.

- The miner is affected by U.S. tariffs both as a seller of metal into the world's biggest economy and a domestic producer. The market wants more detail on how its massive Canadian aluminum business is handling the impact of tariffs, which Rio Tinto recently said cost it roughly $300 million in the first half but was largely offset by higher prices. As a producer of copper both inside the U.S. and elsewhere in the world, Rio Tinto will be affected by plans for a tariff on U.S. imports of that metal, too.

- Rio Tinto last month said an alternative mine plan had been approved at the Oyu Tolgoi copper operation in Mongolia, as it awaits the transfer of some licenses to allow mining in the Entrée joint venture area. While Rio Tinto's copper chief, Katie Jackson, said Oyu Tolgoi continues to ramp up as planned, investors are eager for more detail on how recent changes might impact the operation, including capital expenditure and key milestones.

- In a first-half production update this month, Rio Tinto said it was combining its previous Pilbara Blend and its low-grade SP10 iron-ore products as one single blend. The change lowers the iron content of its flagship Pilbara Blend ore to an average 60.8%, from 61.6% before. Again, the market is searching for greater detail, including whether the strategy absorbs all SP10 volumes and how quickly.

- It wouldn't be a mining result without talk of potential M&A. Rio Tinto had tongues wagging after reports that it last year discussed a merger with rival Glencore. In mining, big deals remain controversial given how many soured after the 2000s commodities boom. In addition to its appetite to possibly grow with more deals, investors will want to know if Rio Tinto is also considering shedding some of its less lucrative assets.

 

Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 29, 2025 03:00 ET (07:00 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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