Updates prices, adds analyst comments
July 31 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose on Thursday but settled at a monthly loss due to rising output and a slightly cooler weather outlook.
Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 2% higher at $3.11 per million British thermal units. During the session, prices rebounded after the contract fell to its lowest level in three months.
"I suspect it is just a technical rebound as prices have dropped quite significantly in the last couple of weeks," said Zhen Zhu, managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Company in Oklahoma City.
For July, prices were down over 10% the biggest monthly decline since April.
"Both the record production and weather outlook are pressuring gas prices ... The market has not found strong footing as there are no solid bullish factors showing up yet," said Zhu.
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 has risen to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day in July, surpassing the previous monthly record of 106.4 bcfd set in June.
LSEG also projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 113 bcfd this week to 108 bcfd next week.
Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis, noted that the market appears fairly oversold, and any emergence of bullish factors could prompt a technical rebound in prices.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 48 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended July 25. That was much bigger than the 37 bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and more than double the injection of 18 bcf during the same week a year ago. It was double the average injection of 24 bcf over the 2020-2024 period. EIA/GAS
That build left stockpiles about 6.7% above the five-year normal for this time of year.
Week ended Jul 25 Actual | Week ended Jul 18 Actual | Year ago Jul 25 | Five-year average Jul 25 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +48 | +23 | +18 | +24 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,123 | 3,075 | 3,246 | 2,928 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.7% | +5.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.04 | 3.045 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.67 | 10.97 | 10.32 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.04 | 12.32 | 11.89 | 15.23 | |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 223 | 235 | 200 | 178 | 195 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 224 | 237 | 205 | 181 | 199 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 108 | 108.3 | 108.1 | 97.8 | |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | |
Total U.S. Supply | 116.1 | 116.3 | 115.9 | 105.7 | |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.3 | |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.4 | |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 15.2 | 14.8 | 15.4 | 10.0 | |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | |
U.S. Residential | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | |
U.S. Power Plant | 43.9 | 51.4 | 45.9 | 48.1 | |
U.S. Industrial | 22.3 | 22.3 | 22.2 | 21.7 | |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
Total U.S. Consumption | 81.8 | 89.5 | 83.8 | 86.9 | |
Total U.S. Demand | 105.9 | 113.0 | 108.0 | 99.2 | |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 78 | 77 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 78 | 78 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 81 | 80 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Aug 1 | Week ended Jul 25 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
45 | 41 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 19 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 16 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.98 | 3.08 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.64 | 2.85 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.39 | 3.28 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.32 | 2.48 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.71 | 2.86 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.8 | 5.00 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.33 | 3.45 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.85 | 0.90 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.02 | 0.24 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 53.69 | ||||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 62.85 | 190.21 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 45.16 | 55.66 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 44.60 | 43.59 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 31.40 | 29.73 |
(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Alexandra Hudson, Rod Nickel and David Gregorio)
((Ashitha.Shivaprasad@thomsonreuters.com;))
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