Updates with closer price
Aug 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Friday on forecasts for less hot weather in the coming weeks than previously expected, which should reduce demand for the fuel.
Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 0.7% lower at $3.08 per million British thermal units.
"The weather pattern for the immediate near term isn't as bullish as we have seen for the past few weeks. This will result in lower power burn demand which is a factor the market has been dealing with for the last few sessions," said Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis.
Financial firm LSEG estimated 235 cooling degree days over the next two weeks. CDDs, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18.3 degrees Celsius).
On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 48 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended July 25. That was much bigger than the 37 bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and more than double the injection of 18 bcf during the same week a year ago. It was double the average injection of 24 bcf over the 2020-2024 period. EIA/GAS
That build left stockpiles about 6.7% above the five-year normal for this time of year.
"We expect the September contract to be range-bound between $3 and $3.20 with some resistance at $3.15. Longer term, markets have upside risk, especially winter contracts which have retracted into oversold on the improving storage levels," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 is at 106.5 billion cubic feet per day in August, compared to the previous monthly record of 107.5 bcfd set in July.
Elsewhere, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were largely flat, supported by outages and concerns over a tighter global market, partly offset by increasing wind power generation that is expected to reduce demand for gas-fired power next week. NG/EU
Week ended Aug 1 Forecast | Week ended Jul 25 Actual | Year ago Aug 1 | Five-year average Aug 1 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +25 | +48 | +21 | +29 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,148 | 3,123 | 3,267 | 2,957 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.5% | +6.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.09 | 3.04 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.15 | 11.67 | 10.32 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | - | 12.04 | 12.32 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 235 | 223 | 198 | 178 | 170 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 236 | 224 | 203 | 180 | 173 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 108 | 107.9 | 107.6 | 97.8 | |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 7.8 | |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | |
Total U.S. Supply | 116.1 | 116.1 | 116.1 | 105.7 | |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.4 | |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 15.2 | 15.5 | 15.6 | 10.0 | |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | |
U.S. Residential | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |
U.S. Power Plant | 43.9 | 45.1 | 49.3 | 48.1 | |
U.S. Industrial | 22.3 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 21.7 | |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.3 | |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
Total U.S. Consumption | 81.8 | 83.0 | 87.7 | 86.9 | |
Total U.S. Demand | 105.9 | 108.1 | 113.0 | 99.2 | |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 77 | 77 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 78 | 78 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 81 | 80 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Aug 1 | Week ended Jul 25 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 7 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
45 | 41 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 19 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 16 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.99 | 2.98 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.23 | 2.64 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.30 | 3.39 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.24 | 2.32 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.60 | 2.71 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.63 | 2.8 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.14 | 3.33 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.63 | 0.85 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.42 | 0.02 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 42.50 | 53.69 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 40.23 | 62.85 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 38.83 | 45.16 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 37.28 | 44.60 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 21.79 | 31.40 |
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrea Ricci and David Gregorio)
((anushree.ashishMukherjee@thomsonreuters.com;))
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