By Dow Jones Newswires staff

Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting August 4.

The key ISM survey of activity in the U.S. services sector will be closely watched as investors continue to gauge the likelihood of U.S. interest-rate cuts in the coming weeks, particularly after U.S. jobs data for July were much weaker than expected.

Further news on tariff deals will be watched too after U.S. President Trump announced steeper levies for dozens of countries, though most of these will take effect from August 7.

In Europe, the Bank of England announces a decision and could reduce interest rates.

In Asia, Japan's central bank will release minutes, which should share details that led up to the recently announced U.S. trade deal. An interest-rate decision from India is also due, alongside trade and inflation data from China.

U.S.

Softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data for July curtailed previous optimism that the U.S. economy was performing well and reignited prospects that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in September.

The jobs data were particularly weak due to significant downward revisions to prior data. Investors will be watching closely for any further signals that tariffs and policy uncertainty could be hampering the U.S. economy.

In an otherwise quiet week, the latest ISM survey on services sector activity in July, due Tuesday, will likely garner the most attention. This data follows below-forecast ISM data on the manufacturing sector, which, alongside the weak jobs figures, "amplifies concerns about economic slowdown," said Aaron Hill, analyst at FP Markets, in a note.

Weakness in the services ISM could make a September rate cut look very likely. LSEG data show that U.S. money markets are pricing in around a 90% chance of a September rate reduction, up sharply from around 45% prior to the latest jobs data.

Other data due in the coming week are trade figures for June on Tuesday, followed by preliminary second-quarter productivity figures and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.

The Treasury will auction $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $42 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $25 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

Canada

Data on the health of the Canadian economy could be of particular interest after President Trump announced that Canada will face tariffs of 35% on any exports into the U.S., having failed to agree a trade deal.

Canadian trade data for June are due on Tuesday, followed by jobs data on Friday.

"We think markets continue to underestimate the downside risks for the Canadian economy," ING currency analyst Francesco Pesole said in a note.

Mexico

Mexico's central bank will announce a policy decision on Thursday, where it could cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 7.75% due to evidence of ebbing inflationary pressures.

Capital Economics expects that rates will be lowered to a "below-consensus" 7.00% by the end of 2025. However, they acknowledge that recent strong second-quarter GDP figures for Mexico could mean that rates don't fall as much as this.

Just ahead of the decision, CPI inflation figures for July are released.

Eurozone

Services purchasing managers indices for France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the eurozone on Tuesday should give indications about consumer activity in light of the finalized 15% tariffs on European exports to the U.S.

Other data will be mostly backward-looking, with June industrial production figures from Spain and France due Tuesday. Manufacturing orders in Germany and Italian industrial production, also for June, are due Wednesday, followed by German industrial production on Thursday.

Eurozone June producer price figures are released Tuesday and retail trade data for the same month on Wednesday.

Germany will auction the September 2027 Schatz on Tuesday, as well as May 2038- and July 2042-dated Bunds on Wednesday. Other bond issuers are Austria on Tuesday, and Spain and France on Thursday.

U.K.

The Bank of England announces a policy decision on Thursday, where most analysts expect it to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%.

Such a move would be in keeping with policymakers' signals in recent weeks that rates should be brought lower gradually. The BOE remains cautious as inflation is elevated, but elsewhere there are signs that the U.K. economy is struggling as the labor market cools.

U.K. money markets are pricing an 86% chance of a rate reduction this month, LSEG data show.

Other data include the final estimate for the purchasing managers' survey on services activity for July on Tuesday, and the latest RICS house price survey on Friday.

The U.K. plans to sell government bonds maturing in March 2035 on Tuesday.

Scandinavia

Swedish provisional inflation data for July are due on Thursday.

Scandinavian countries resume bond auctions after the July break with Denmark and Norway lining up for bond sales on Wednesday.

Switzerland

Swiss inflation data for July are due on Monday.

Investors could pay greater attention to evidence of how the Swiss economy is performing after after Trump unexpectedly announced substantial 39% tariffs on Swiss exports to the U.S.

Czech Republic

The Czech central bank announces a rate decision on Thursday and is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.50%.

The prospect that the Czech central bank's interest-rate cutting cycle has now ended should support the Czech koruna relative to its peers, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose said in a note.

Japan

The Bank of Japan is scheduled to release the minutes of its June 16-17 monetary-policy meeting on Tuesday, and the summary of opinions from its July 30-31 meeting on Friday. The latter may draw greater market attention as it could include views on the recently reached Japan-U.S. trade deal.

On Wednesday, the central bank plans outright purchases across four sectors of the Japanese government bond market, including securities with tenors of more than three years and up to five years, as well as those with tenors of more than 10 years and up to 25 years. These operations should provide some support to the local bond market that day.

The Ministry of Finance will auction about 2.6 trillion yen of 10-year sovereign bonds on Tuesday and around 700 billion yen of 30-year government bonds on Thursday. The 30-year JGBs to be auctioned in August will be a reopening of the July 2025 issue, according to the ministry.

Market participants are expected to closely scrutinize the outcome of the 30-year JGB auction amid lingering concerns over potential additional bond issuance to finance economic stimulus measures by a new government, following the ruling coalition's loss of its Upper House majority in last month's elections.

Current account balance and household spending figures for June are also scheduled for release on Friday.

China

As Beijing and Washington concluded their latest round of trade talks in Stockholm, Chinese trade data due Thursday will offer clues on whether outbound shipments sustained momentum in July. Many analysts expect Chinese exports--pressured by U.S. tariffs--to weaken sharply later this year.

The gauge for new export orders in the official July manufacturing PMI fell to a three-month low, Citi economists noted. While they expect exports to remain resilient in July, rising about 8% on year, low commodity prices and a less favorable base are likely to weigh on imports.

Inflation figures are expected to show another month of heightened downward price pressures. China's factory-gate prices have been stuck in deflation for nearly three years, while consumer prices hover around zero growth.

Chinese authorities have reiterated pledges to curb "disorderly" competition, which has led to brutal price wars. Market attention now turns to further measures to address excess capacity in key industries, including green technology.

Australia/New Zealand

The case for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates further could gain momentum, with second-quarter employment data expected to show ongoing labor-market weakness.

Employment growth over the past three months has been soft, raising concerns that unemployment could climb to about 5.3%, surpassing the central bank's forecast.

Confirmation of slack in the labor market--despite aggressive rate cuts since mid-2024--would likely revive expectations for further easing this year.

In Australia, June household spending data will be closely watched for signs that consumers increased purchases during midyear sales. A strong reading could temper expectations for an interest-rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia's Aug. 12 meeting.

After recent second-quarter inflation data showed core price pressures retreating, money markets are now pricing in a 100% probability of an RBA cut.

India

India's central bank meets Wednesday amid market volatility and after the U.S. announced a 25% tariff rate, with Washington also threatening "penalties" over India's purchases of Russian goods.

While a further drop in June inflation has raised the possibility of an August rate cut, the Reserve Bank of India has signaled that its easing cycle may have ended following a 50-basis-point cut in June and a shift in policy stance, said Shilan Shah of Capital Economics.

ANZ Research expects the decision to be a close call but sees scope for a 25-basis-point cut, citing slowing growth, declining inflation, and the drag from higher U.S. tariffs.

Some monetary-policy committee members have indicated flexibility on further easing, ANZ noted.

South Korea

South Korea's statistics office will release July inflation data on Tuesday.

Headline inflation likely stayed unchanged from June, rising 2.2% on year, according to the median forecast of 11 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to have edged up 0.2% after being flat in June.

Heat waves and heavy rain may have pushed up some agricultural prices, adding slight inflationary pressure, analysts said.

While demand-side pressures remain soft, new fiscal stimulus from President Lee Jae-myung's administration--including cash handouts to boost consumption--could add short-term price pressures, said Chun Kyu-yeon, economist at Hana Securities.

The Bank of Korea in May projected 2025 inflation at 1.9%, just below its 2.0% target. The central bank is set to update its forecast in August.

Indonesia

Indonesia's statistics bureau will release second-quarter GDP data on Tuesday.

Growth likely eased to 4.80% from 4.87% in the prior quarter, reflecting weaker domestic and external demand, ANZ economists Vicky Xiao Zhou and Raymond Yeung said in a note.

High-frequency indicators point to softer consumer sentiment, subdued retail and car sales, and slower loan growth. While government spending began rising in June, its full impact will likely appear in the third quarter, they added.

Although the recent U.S. tariff cut to 19% is a positive step, it may only partially offset downside risks to growth, ANZ said.

Taiwan

Taiwan will release July inflation and trade data Wednesday and Friday.

Inflation likely remained subdued after hitting a more than four-year low in June, with forecasts ranging from 1.3% to 1.6%. ANZ economists expect firm food inflation but a sequential decline in clothing inflation, reflecting seasonal trends.

July exports likely stayed solid amid continued demand for tech products, though ING economists warned momentum could soften in coming months.

The U.S. unveiled a 20% tariff on Taiwanese goods ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline--down from the initial 32% but higher than the 15% rate for Japan and South Korea. Taiwan's cabinet said the tariff is temporary as trade talks have reached "a certain degree of consensus" on key issues.

The final tariff rate could be lowered once negotiations conclude. Details on sectoral tariffs, particularly for chips and electronics, will be key to Taiwan's trade and growth outlook for the rest of the year, economists said.

Philippines

The Philippines is scheduled to release its July inflation data on Tuesday. The data will be watched to see if price growth falls within policymakers' target range. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas expects July's inflation to range between 0.5% and 1.3%, which could open the door for further rate cuts, said MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan in a research report.

The Southeast Asian country's second-quarter gross domestic product figures are also due on Thursday. The Philippines' economy likely slowed as election-related restrictions on government spending were in place, Barclays economists and analysts said in a note.

Thailand

Thailand will report July inflation this week, which will indicate whether consumer prices remain in deflation.

Prices likely continued to decline, reflecting lower raw food and energy costs and base effects, ANZ Research said.

Any references to days are in local times.

Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 03, 2025 17:00 ET (21:00 GMT)

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