EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX muted, stocks lifted by hopes of near-term US rate cuts

Reuters
08/06
EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX muted, stocks lifted by hopes of near-term US rate cuts

Brazil's central bank flags caution over US tariffs

Colombian inflation reading expected

Trump threatens higher tariffs on India

Updates with afternoon levels

By Purvi Agarwal, Sukriti Gupta and Ragini Mathur

Aug 5 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies were flat to marginally higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, while regional stock markets advanced on growing optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve may soon ease its monetary policy.

MSCI's Latam currencies gauge .MILA00000CUS inched up 0.2% against a steady dollar =USD.

Investors globally were also keen on U.S. President Donald Trump's choice to fill an open seat on the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors that could shape the stance of the world's most influential central bank.

In Latin America, Brazil's real BRL= edged 0.1% lower, while stocks .BVSP inched up 0.3% after the Brazilian central bank signaled caution regarding the potential impact of new U.S. import tariffs on specific sectors, and reaffirmed its policy stance aimed at lowering inflation expectations.

Brazil faces one of the highest tariffs, at 50%, on certain goods exported to the U.S.

However, analysts believe the country is unlikely to suffer significant consequences from these steep levies, given the limited share of its exports destined for the U.S. and the range of exemptions the country received last week.

"In the case of Brazilian exports, agricultural produce and some semi-manufactured products have increased since the beginning of the year," said Alfredo Coutino, director for Latin America at Moody's Analytics.

"So that means that even though they are targeted by U.S. tariffs, it hasn't been significantly affected by the tariff because now they are probably trying to send those exports to different areas in the world."

Currencies of major copper exporters were mostly steady, with Chile's peso CLP= remaining flat, while Peru's sol PEN= edging up 0.3%.

Colombia's peso COP= gained 0.2%. The Colombian central bank revised its inflation projections higher for 2025 and 2026 on Monday, ahead of a consumer price index reading.

Mexico's peso MXN= appreciated 0.9% to touch a near one-week high. The regional central bank is expected to deliver its verdict on monetary policy later this week, with economists suggesting an interest rate cut of 25 basis points.

Regional bourses also rose, with MSCI's index tracking Latam stocks .MILA00000PUS up 0.6%, putting it on course for a second session of gains.

Mexican .MXX stocks advanced 0.9%, and shares in Argentina .MERV added 2.6%.

Adding to the upbeat mood, UN's Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) raised growth projection for some of the Latam countries for year 2025.

Elsewhere, Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to yield to a sanctions ultimatum from the U.S., which expires this Friday, sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters.

The rouble RUB= closed 0.2% lower on the day.

Trump has threatened new sanctions and 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, mainly China and India, unless Putin agrees to a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Trump said he would raise tariffs on Indian imports over the next 24 hours, given the country's continued purchases of Russian oil.

India's rupee INR=IN was down 0.2% on the day, while stocks slipped 0.3%, as markets closed before the latest announcement.

The rupee is among the few currencies that have depreciated against the dollar so far this year, compared to other emerging market currencies that capitalized on the dollar's weakness in 2025.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Latin American market prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1246.8

0.79

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2256.87

0.60

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

133424.8

0.34

Mexico IPC .MXX

57044.34

0.7

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

8190.26

-0.24

Argentina Merval .MERV

2347175.4

2.6

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1757.04

0.31

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.5048

-0.12

Mexico peso MXN=

18.7332

0.86

Chile peso CLP=

965.27

-0.01

Colombia peso COP=

4090.1

0.19

Peru sol PEN=

3.554

0.29

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1338.5

1.36

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1305

-0.8

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal, Sukriti Gupta, Ragini Mathur and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton and Mohammed Safi Shamsi)

((Ragini.Mathur@thomsonreuters.com;))

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