TradingKey – In the politically sensitive run-up to the U.S. election, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly announced her early resignation on August 1 via social media, sparking widespread attention. On the heels of her announcement, Donald Trump nominated Stephen Miran, an economic advisor, to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board.

It’s worth noting that Kugler was appointed during President Biden’s administration, not to a new seat, but to complete the remainder of former Fed Governor Randal Quarles’s term. Now, with Kugler resigning before completing even that interim term, the timing appears notable—despite her official reason being a return to her academic post at Georgetown University.

However, market observers point out that such a return to academia would typically be accompanied by clear signals, such as scheduled academic engagements, new research announcements, or formal university statements. As of now, Georgetown University has made no such announcements, and Kugler herself has not given any media interviews or further explanation.

Some analysts believe this may be part of a broader political strategy orchestrated by Trump and his team.

Since the start of his second presidential campaign, Trump has been regaining influence in Congress, especially when it comes to steering legislative processes. Now, he may be seeking to exert influence over the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially steering its policy direction to better align with his political and economic goals.

During his previous term, Trump repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, accusing him of cutting interest rates too slowly and even exploring legal avenues to remove him. Following the July FOMC meeting, in which Powell again opted to delay rate cuts, Trump’s frustration reportedly deepened. Kugler’s resignation presented a political opportunity—a timely opening for Trump to nominate a more dovish or Fed-aligned voice to the board.

The appointment of Stephen Miran has once again brought the Fed’s independence into question, especially amid speculation that Trump is seeking to place a “shadow chair” ahead of potential re-election.

Marco Casiraghi of Evercore ISI noted that Trump’s nomination of Miran appears to be a tactical move, intended to keep options open for final personnel decisions before January, including possible changes to both board composition and the Fed Chair.

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