Record output keeps gas stockpiles 7% above normal
LSEG projects demand rise from 105.8 bcfd to 110.5 bcfd next week
LNG export feedgas increases despite Freeport LNG issues
Adds latesst prices
By Scott DiSavino
August 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% to a 14-week low on Monday on near-record output, a decline in demand over the next two weeks, and lagging gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants.
Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 14.4 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $2.939 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since April 25.
That drop pushed the contract back into technically oversold territory for the second time in a week.
Even though the hottest days of the summer were likely last week, meteorologists forecast temperatures in the Lower 48 U.S. states will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least August 19.
Despite a hotter-than-usual summer, record output has enabled energy firms to keep adding more gas than usual into storage. Analysts said gas stockpiles were currently around 7% above normal for this time of year and would likely keep growing in coming weeks. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 107.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from a monthly record high of 107.6 bcfd in July.
On a daily basis, however, output is on track to drop to a preliminary one-week low of 107.1 bcfd on Monday, down about 2.3 bcfd since hitting a daily record high of 109.4 bcfd on July 28. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 105.8 bcfd this week to 110.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 15.8 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July but still below the monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
That small increase in LNG export feedgas came despite problems at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas last week.
Week ended Aug 1 Forecast | Week ended Jul 25 Actual | Year ago Aug 1 | Five-year average Aug 1 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +25 | +48 | +21 | +29 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,148 | 3,123 | 3,267 | 2,957 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.5% | +6.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.06 | 3.08 | 2.09 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.47 | 11.53 | 12.40 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.00 | 12.04 | 13.31 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 233 | 235 | 218 | 201 | 192 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 235 | 236 | 223 | 204 | 196 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 108.4 | 108.0 | 107.8 | 102.5 | 97.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | N/A | 7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 116.3 | 115.9 | 116.1 | N/A | 105.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | N/A | 6.4 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 14.7 | 15.4 | 15.5 | 12.9 | 10.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
U.S. Residential | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 51.3 | 42.8 | 47.4 | 49.7 | 44.4 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.1 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 21.8 | 21.9 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 89.3 | 80.7 | 85.3 | 87.2 | 82.8 |
Total U.S. Demand | 112.8 | 105.8 | 110.5 | N/A | 95.3 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 77 | 77 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 78 | 78 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 80 | 80 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Aug 8 | Week ended Aug 1 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 7 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
42 | 45 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 17 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.00 | 2.99 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.22 | 2.23 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.15 | 3.30 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.08 | 2.24 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.63 | 2.60 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.41 | 2.63 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.09 | 3.14 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.50 | 0.63 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.49 | 0.30 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 59.93 | 42.50 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 46.37 | 40.23 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 34.98 | 38.83 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 44.30 | 37.28 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 28.96 | 21.79 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York and Ashitha Shivaprasad and Sherin Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao and Daniel Wallis)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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