Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key financial metrics. Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. However, after investigating China Telecom (HKG:728), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
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For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on China Telecom is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.073 = CN¥40b ÷ (CN¥858b - CN¥311b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).
Therefore, China Telecom has an ROCE of 7.3%. Even though it's in line with the industry average of 7.3%, it's still a low return by itself.
See our latest analysis for China Telecom
Above you can see how the current ROCE for China Telecom compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering China Telecom for free.
There are better returns on capital out there than what we're seeing at China Telecom. The company has consistently earned 7.3% for the last five years, and the capital employed within the business has risen 24% in that time. Given the company has increased the amount of capital employed, it appears the investments that have been made simply don't provide a high return on capital.
In summary, China Telecom has simply been reinvesting capital and generating the same low rate of return as before. Yet to long term shareholders the stock has gifted them an incredible 246% return in the last five years, so the market appears to be rosy about its future. Ultimately, if the underlying trends persist, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger going forward.
On a final note, we've found 1 warning sign for China Telecom that we think you should be aware of.
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