0158 GMT - Liontown is unlikely to generate positive cashflow until FY 2028, according to Citi analyst Kate McCutcheon. That is based on Citi's lithium-price forecasts, which average around US$830/metric ton through the end of next year. "While LTR is a quality orebody with expandable scale, we keep our sell rating on valuation grounds," she says in a note. Citi's target on Liontown is cut to A$0.40 from A$0.50 previously. Liontown shares are halted. The stock last traded at A$0.845/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0118 GMT - ASX's bears at UBS think that a regulatory inquiry into the market operator will lead to a recurring increase in its operating costs. ASX's warning of a A$30 million hit from the Australian Securities and Investment Commission's inquiry is seen by UBS analysts as implying a one-off 4% impact to fiscal 2026 EPS. However, they anticipate another A$20 million in fiscal 2027 and also see elevated cost growth the following year. Cost growth is likely to outstrip revenue growth in fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028, they warn clients in a note. UBS cuts its target price 7.9% to A$63.65 and keeps a sell rating on the stock, which is up 0.9% at A$64.80. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2316 GMT -- Origin Energy's earnings guidance for its Energy Markets business in FY 2026 is front of mind for Jarden ahead of the company's annual result Thursday. Analyst Nik Burns expects Origin to signal underlying Ebitda of A$1.602 billion in Energy Markets. That's 9% ahead of Jarden's A$1.372 billion forecast for FY 2025. Driving the on-year earnings improvement are higher natural-gas and electricity gross profits, a lower cost to serve and the start-up of Eraring Stage 1 battery, Jarden says. "We forecast A$1.1 billion capex in FY 2026, with focus on support for new gas peaker investment and any possibility of life extension at Eraring," Jarden says. "We also look for any indication of plans to list Octopus Energy's Kraken business on the Nasdaq." (david.winning@wsj.com)

2323 GMT - Amplitude Energy could be conservative again when setting expectations for its natural gas production, suggests Jarden. Amplitude has overcome problems at its Orbost Gas Processing Plant, which is now producing some 68 terajoules of gas per day. Analyst Nik Burns forecasts an improvement to some 74 TJ/day in FY 2026 for total production of 4.4 million barrels of oil equivalent. "We note that Amplitude set very conservative production guidance in FY25 (then upgraded twice), so may follow suit once more," Jarden says. Amplitude is due to report its FY 2025 result on Aug. 19. Jarden also hopes for updates to costs and schedule of Amplitude's East Coast Supply Project and the timing of increasing nameplate capacity of the Orbost plant. It retains a "buy" call on Amplitude. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2320 GMT - Jarden wonders whether Liontown's equity raising is big enough. The roughly A$266 million placement buys Liontown time to navigate depressed lithium prices, and dilutes the negative cash-flow-per-share and earnings-per-share metrics forecast for the next few years, analysts Ben Lyons and Adam Bennett say. Yet they estimate the SC6 spodumene price needs to average roughly US$1,100/metric ton in FY26 and US$1,000/ton in FY27 for Liontown to break even on free cash flow. So, the equity essentially provides a roughly 18-month buffer for spot prices to rise by about 50%, Lyons and Bennett say. Jarden downgrades the stock to "underweight" from "neutral." Its target price rises to A$0.50/share from A$0.48 before. Liontown last traded at A$0.845. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2309 GMT - No news from Monadelphous is likely good news, says Jefferies. Monadelphous hasn't updated on trading since its 1H result in February. Analyst Tom Chapman thinks Monadelphous is therefore on track for its FY 2025 targets of high-single-digit-revenue growth with improved operating margins. That's in line with Jefferies's forecasts for 8% revenue growth and a 30 bps expansion in margins. Monadelphous is due to report its annual result on Aug. 19. "All eyes will be on the contract pipeline for FY 2026, particularly after the acquisition of High Energy Service," Jefferies says. It downgrades Monadelphous to "underperform," from "hold," citing a lofty valuation. Its price target moves up 6.3%, to A$17.00/share, still below Monadelphous's closing price on Thursday of A$20.39. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 08, 2025 01:15 ET (05:15 GMT)

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