Explore LyondellBasell Industries's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

There's been a notable change in appetite for LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE:LYB) shares in the week since its second-quarter report, with the stock down 19% to US$50.90. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$7.7b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 59% to hit US$0.34 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the 16 analysts covering LyondellBasell Industries provided consensus estimates of US$30.3b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a sizeable 22% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 390% to US$2.28. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$30.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.93 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

View our latest analysis for LyondellBasell Industries

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 8.2% to US$62.22, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on LyondellBasell Industries, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$105 and the most bearish at US$46.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 39% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 3.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.4% per year. It's pretty clear that LyondellBasell Industries' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for LyondellBasell Industries. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that LyondellBasell Industries' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for LyondellBasell Industries going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for LyondellBasell Industries (2 don't sit too well with us!) that you need to be mindful of.

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