Bitcoin BTC/USD and Ethereum ETH/USD are entering a pivotal phase in the current bull cycle, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.

What Happened: Ethereum's push above $4,000 marks the completion of what Cowen called its "going home" phase in a podcast on Aug. 10 — a recurring cycle pattern where Ethereum bottoms against Bitcoin for the third time, as seen in 2016 and 2019.

This involved capitulating to its regression band, setting the stage for a sustainable rally.

Cowen sees ETH consolidating between $4,000 and $5,000 through September and October, with strong resistance near its all-time high of $4,867.

He dubs this period "Ethereum season," noting ETH's outperformance against most altcoins despite their resilience versus Bitcoin.

Altcoin Rotation

Cowen forecasts altcoins could peak on Bitcoin pairs by late August, possibly around the time of Powell's Jackson Hole speech, before liquidity rotates back into BTC in September–October, similar to the 2017 cycle.

Bitcoin dominance could approach 60% before climbing further into the fall, with altcoins bottoming later in the season.

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Also Read: Ethereum Is Like A ‘Decentralized App Store’: Bernstein

Bitcoin's Path

In a separate podcast, Cowen predicted Bitcoin is likely to follow post-halving patterns from prior cycles, holding strength through August before a September dip toward its bull market support band at $110,000–$115,000.

The 20-week SMA, now at $105,000–$107,000, is on track to meet that range by mid-September.

Cowen notes such pullbacks preceded cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, suggesting a potential Q4 high remains in play.

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