It's shaping up to be a tough period for Bicycle Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:BCYC), which a week ago released some disappointing second-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It was not a great result overall, as revenues of US$2.9m fell 69% short of analyst expectations. Unsurprisingly, statutory losses ended up being19% larger than the analysts expected, at US$1.14 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Bicycle Therapeutics after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Bicycle Therapeutics' 13 analysts is for revenues of US$30.5m in 2025. This would reflect a huge 58% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$4.15 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$37.0m and losses of US$3.82 per share in 2025. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Bicycle Therapeutics

The average price target fell 6.4% to US$23.91, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Bicycle Therapeutics' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Bicycle Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$44.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Bicycle Therapeutics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 151% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 27% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 19% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Bicycle Therapeutics is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Bicycle Therapeutics. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Bicycle Therapeutics' future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Bicycle Therapeutics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Bicycle Therapeutics is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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