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Economists Warn Full Tariff Impact Yet to Come; Chinese Imports Falling Again By Liz Young

The highest tariffs in almost a century haven't caused inflation to surge. Some economists believe that's because many tariffs have yet to kick in.

The WSJ's Konrad Putzier writes that a new study from Barclays finds the tariffs being paid by importers so far are lower than expected .

Barclays economists studied census data to see what tariffs importers actually paid in May. They found the weighted-average tariff rate-the average of all tariffs, adjusted for import volume from each country-that month was around 9%, well below the 12% they had previously estimated.

That was in part because more than half of U.S. imports were duty-free, according to Barclays.

Goods like pharmaceuticals, certain electronics and many imports from Canada and Mexico were exempted from President Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs. There are also partial exemptions for goods with at least 20% U.S.-made components.

The study noted many U.S. companies and consumers also bought less from countries with higher levies.

The actual rates importers pay are likely to rise in months to come. Many existing loopholes could close, and Trump has threatened additional levies. Barclays expects weighted-average tariffs to end up at around 15%, far higher than last year's 2.5%.

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Quotable Economy & Trade

The U.S. trade relationship with China has changed dramatically since President Trump first slapped tariffs on the country in 2018.

The WSJ's Chao Deng and Peter Santilli write that China now accounts for only about 12% of all U.S. imports, down from a peak of 22% in 2018 , according to Census data. The U.S. trade deficit with China has fallen to about $280 billion from a height of $418 billion in December that year.

Goods that once came from China are now being made in other Asian countries, including Vietnam, Indonesia and India. Statistics might also understate the true level of Chinese imports. Some products labeled as coming from Vietnam or elsewhere actually originate in China.

Trump delayed for 90 days raising tariffs on China as the countries negotiate a trade deal. Where the countries ultimately end up-and how it affects the trade deficit-remains to be seen. Number of the Day In Other News

Retail sales rose 0.5% in July from June. (WSJ)

Expectations of more inflation ahead have soured consumers' mood , according to a University of Michigan survey. (WSJ)

U.S. credit-card spending slowed after a yearslong surge. (WSJ)

Intel and the Trump administration are discussing the possibility of the U.S. government taking a financial stake in the troubled chip maker. (WSJ)

Air Canada flight attendants walked off the job over the weekend and rejected a government order to return to work. (WSJ)

A deadly explosion at a U.S. Steel plant in Pennsylvania may have happened while flushing a gas valve in preparation for planned maintenance. (WSJ)

Electric truck maker Rivian says the rollback of fuel economy rules in the U.S. is holding up $100 million of revenue. (WSJ)

The Justice Department sued the California Air Resources Board over its emissions standards for trucks . (WSJ)

Danish shipping firm DFDS lowered its expectations for operating income for the year. (ShippingWatch)

Chinese shipbuilder Jiangsu Dajin Heavy Industry signed a contract for six multipurpose general cargo newbuilds. (Splash 247)

Mediterranean Shipping is expanding its South Africa-U.S. East Coast service to cover some West African ports . (Journal of Commerce)

Swiss chocolatier Lindt & Spruengli may shift production of its gold-wrapped Easter bunnies to the U.S. to avoid tariffs. (Bloomberg)

About Us

Mark R. Long is editor of WSJ Logistics Report. Reach him at .

Follow the WSJ Logistics Report team on LinkedIn: Mark R. Long , Liz Young and Paul Berger .

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 18, 2025 07:03 ET (11:03 GMT)

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