Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) has a strong Medicare Advantage value-based care model, which integrates health plans with care delivery supporting better results and cost savings, KeyBanc Capital Markets said in a note Sunday.

The company reinvests savings into member benefits, which is expected to support long-term growth and market share gains, the investment firm said.

Alignment Healthcare is projected to deliver strong earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization growth in 2026 and 2027 amid maturing patient cohorts, improved Medicare Star ratings, and better reimbursement rates, KeyBanc said.

H2 guidance appears conservative, particularly with hospital admissions expected to rise, though recent data suggest performance may exceed expectations, KeyBanc analysts noted.

If hospital admission rates stay lower and cost benefits continue, the company could see meaningful improvement in its 2025 earnings estimates, according to the note.

Risks include Medicare regulatory uncertainty and rising medical usage among members, KeyBanc added.

KeyBanc upgraded Alignment Healthcare to overweight from sector weight with a $21 price target.

Shares of the company were up about 1% in recent Monday trading.

Price: 16.09, Change: +0.25, Percent Change: +1.58