FACTBOX-Wall Street ramps up bets on September rate cut after Powell's dovish tone

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FACTBOX-Wall Street ramps up bets on September rate cut after Powell's dovish tone

Updates throughout

August 25 (Reuters) - Brokerages are adding a September rate cut to their forecasts after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank could ease policy next month.

Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas and Barclays pulled forward their rate cut forecast to September after Powell emphasized increasing risks to the labor market at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday.

"We continue to believe that monetary policy must be forward-looking and consider the lags in its effects on the economy," and that the Fed must balance risks to both its job and inflation mandates when setting monetary policy, Powell said.

Last month, the U.S. central bank held interest rates steady and maintained its projection for two cuts this year and slightly dialed back its outlook to just one 25-basis-point cut in both 2026 and 2027.

Traders are pricing in 52.3 bps in rate cuts by year-end, according to data compiled by LSEG. They are penciling in about an 83.3% chance of a 25-bps cut in September, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet again on September 16 and 17.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025:

Note: Nomura's change was prior to the Jackson Hole symposium

Brokerage

Total cuts in 2025

No. of cuts in 2025

Fed Funds Rate (end of 2025)

Citigroup

75 bps

3 (starting in September)

3.00-3.25% (March 2026)

Wells Fargo

75 bps

3 (starting in September)

3.50-3.75%

Goldman Sachs

75 bps

3 (Starting in September)

3.50-3.75%

Macquarie

50 bps

2 (in September and December)

3.75-4.00%

J.P.Morgan

75 bps

3 (Starting in September)

3.50-3.75%

Barclays

50 bps

2 (in September and December)

3.75-4.00%

Nomura

50 bps

2 (in September and December)

3.75-4.00%

Morgan Stanley

No rate cut

0

4.25-4.50%

Deutsche Bank

50 bps

2 (in September and December)

3.75-4.00%

BofA Global Research

No rate cut

0

4.25-4.50%

UBS Global Research

100 bps

Starting in September

3.25-3.50%

BNP Paribas

50 bps

2 (in September and December)

3.75-4.00%

HSBC

50 bps

2 (in September and December)

3.75-4.00%

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri, Devika Syamnath, Shilpi Majumdar, Vijay Kishore, Harikrishnan Nair and Anil D'Silva)

((JoelJose@thomsonreuters.com))

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