MW The bear case on Eli Lilly has played out, says only firm to have called it a sell

By Steve Goldstein

HSBC analysts had a reduce rating on Lilly shares. It's now a hold.

There are no longer any sell ratings on Eli Lilly after HSBC upgrade.

The bear case for Eli Lilly has now played out following the market reaction to the drug manufacturer's oral obesity drug trial, an analyst said Wednesday in upgrading the stock.

HSBC analysts led by Rajesh Kumar brought their rating on the stock to hold from reduce as they lifted the price target to $700 from $675.

Lilly shares $(LLY)$ closed Tuesday at $736 after having dropped 5% this year.

According to FactSet, the average price target on the Indianapolis-based drug company is $913. After the HSBC upgrade, there are no firms with the equivalent of a sell rating on Eli Lilly, according to FactSet.

The late-stage trial of orforglipron shows a clear commercial path for both filing and commercialization, and market expectations for peak revenue are now more sensible. Analyst estimates for the oral obesity drug's 2032 revenue are now at $15.5 billion, versus the $20 billion estimate from June, and the HSBC analysts say market expectations are closer to $10 billion of peak sales.

"What is now clear is that the initial market expectation that orforglipron might unilaterally dominate the oral market stands corrected," the analysts said.

The analysts find solace, however, in Eli Lilly's move to increase prices outside the U.S. - "a clear signal that the company might remain price disciplined." If rival Novo Nordisk (NVO) reciprocates, then there's potential for the total addressable market of the GLP-1 market to meet consensus expectations.

-Steve Goldstein

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August 27, 2025 07:25 ET (11:25 GMT)

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