MW Billions wiped off value of French banks with Bayrou-led government on verge of collapse

By Steve Goldstein

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou gestures as he speaks during a press conference in Paris on August 25, 2025. The French stock market slumped on the prospect of Bayrou's government collapsing.

French banking giants BNP Paribas and Societe Generale saw billions of euros wiped off their market value on Tuesday as the government of the eurozone's number-two economy was set for collapse.

Prime Minister Francois Bayrou on Monday said he would seek parliamentary authority for his austerity plans on Sept. 8., which analysts say he is unlikely to win.

"The numbers don't look good in that his centrist party has 210 seats in parliament, while the far left and the far right have a combined 330 seats and have already said they will vote no," said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

"Under almost all plausible scenarios, this new political crisis perpetuates and intensifies the political instability and policy opacity that has been weighing on France since the dissolution of Parliament of June 2024," said Arnaud Mares, chief European economist at Citi.

BNP (FR:BNP) and SocGen (FR:GLE) shares each slumped by 6%, as the broader CAC 40 index FR:PX1 underperformed European bourses XX:SXXP.

The yield on the 10-year French government bond BX:TMBMKFR-10Y rose by 1 basis point as Germany's BX:TMBMKDE-10Y fell by 3 basis points, further widening the gap between the two countries. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.

Analysts at Kepler pointed out the country's debt spread never fully recovered from last year's dissolution, so the new episode is partly priced in.

Citi's Mares said that if the government does collapse, French President Emmanuel Macron can either try to appoint a new prime minister or he can call for new legislative elections, which would have to take place between 20 and 40 days after parliament's dissolution - so it would likely be in October.

A third option would be for Macron to resign and trigger a presidential election, but Mares called that "implausible."

He added the French political gridlock will make it unlikely for Europe to make meaningful progress on defense, energy policy or institutional reform.

-Steve Goldstein

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August 26, 2025 04:12 ET (08:12 GMT)

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