By Josh Nathan-Kazis

The Trump administration's dramatic reworking of U.S. public-health agencies' approach to vaccines is creating a difficult and unpredictable situation for drugmakers.

Pfizer, in particular, could be challenged by the administration's policy shifts around the preventive shots.

U.S. Big Pharma companies are generally less exposed to the vaccine market than their European peers such as Sanofi and GSK. But Pfizer is in a unique position, with a long list of its drugs set to lose patent protection in coming years. As that happens, the company's vaccines are projected to comprise a growing portion of total company revenue, according to a Barron's analysis of Wall Street estimates.

The shift in the company's revenue base comes at an uneasy moment for the vaccine industry. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the U.S. health secretary, is leading a sweeping campaign against the vaccine status quo, announcing funding cuts to messenger RNA-based vaccine research, the firing of the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention after she resisted his changes to vaccine policy, and the wholesale replacement of all of the members of the CDC committee that guides how vaccines are used in the U.S.

There are hints of even more significant changes to come.

The CDC vaccine advisory committee, handpicked by Kennedy, is now stacked with critics of messenger RNA-based vaccines. It will vote late this month on a recommendation for how the mRNA-based Covid-19 shots should be used, and is expected to issue narrow recommendations that could severely limit how insurers cover the vaccines.

The committee has also said it may vote at the same meeting on other shots, including respiratory syncytial virus vaccines and the measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella vaccine. During his confirmation hearing in January, Kennedy refused to say that the MMR vaccine doesn't cause autism, echoing an antivaccine attack that has spawned years of conspiracy theories. (Kennedy has since endorsed the shot.)

Kennedy's interventions have sapped investor enthusiasm for the vaccine sector. Shares of Moderna, the mRNA-focused biotech that sells Covid-19 and RSV vaccines, are down more than 40% since President Donald Trump announced his intention to name Kennedy to lead the Department of Health and Human Services last November. In August, Australian conglomerate CSL, which owns CSL Seqirus, a major supplier of flu vaccines in the U.S., announced sweeping layoffs and a plan to spin off the vaccine subsidiary. Its stock, which trades on the Australian Securities Exchange, is down more than 30% over the past year.

For U.S. Big Pharma names, vaccines are mostly an afterthought. Vaccines accounted for roughly 6% of the combined revenue of Merck, Pfizer, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, and Johnson & Johnson in 2019, according to a Barron's analysis, and 8% in 2024.

But vaccine exposure isn't distributed evenly across the Big Pharma peer group. Bristol, J&J, and Lilly have had effectively no vaccine revenue in recent years. (J&J did sell a Covid-19 vaccine, though the shot wasn't competitive and is no longer on the market.)

Merck and Pfizer, meanwhile, have significant vaccine businesses. Merck sells the HPV vaccine Gardasil, the MMR vaccine, and a number of other shots. Pfizer sells the Covid-19 vaccine it developed with BioNTech, called Comirnaty, plus the Prevnar pneumococcal vaccines, among other, smaller products.

Gardasil is Merck's second-best-selling product, and vaccine sales account for roughly a fifth of its revenue. In 2030, FactSet estimates have vaccines making up around 19% of Merck's sales.

Pfizer's reliance on vaccine sales has historically been less than Merck's. In 2019, vaccines accounted for 13% of its revenue. In 2024, with the addition of its Covid-19 vaccine, that rose to 20%.

FactSet consensus estimates have 20% of Pfizer's revenue coming from vaccines once again in 2025.

But as patent expirations hit Pfizer products such as the cancer drugs Xeljanz and Ibrance and blood thinner Eliquis, the company's revenue stream will grow increasingly concentrated in vaccines, which don't face the same kind of competition.

In 2030, vaccines are projected to roughly amount to a quarter of Pfizer's total revenue, potentially topping the list of U.S. Big Pharma vaccine exposure.

These projections could change as Pfizer's pipeline evolves. Pfizer told Barron's that it has a number of drugs under development that could drive significant revenue.

"While vaccines remain a core aspect to our portfolio, we are excited by multiple assets that we believe have significant future revenue potential across all four of our core therapeutic areas to help address substantial patient need and drive Pfizer's growth in the coming years, with the greatest research investment centered on our oncology franchise, " says a Pfizer spokesperson.

Until then, investors are left with a business where vaccines are increasingly important, in a world where their future is increasingly unpredictable.

Write to Josh Nathan-Kazis at josh.nathan-kazis@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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September 12, 2025 03:00 ET (07:00 GMT)

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