MW Could Microsoft buy OpenAI? A new arrangement makes that possible - one day.

By Christine Ji

OpenAI's transition to a profit-driven business model makes it a better candidate for an IPO or an acquisition

Microsoft has been an investor in OpenAI since 2019.

Microsoft Corp.'s partnership with OpenAI has become increasingly complicated in the face of rising competition in the artificial-intelligence space, but a recent development may have put Microsoft in the driver's seat.

On Thursday afternoon, the two companies announced a nonbinding memorandum of understanding for a revised relationship.

The agreement marks the latest step in OpenAI's journey of transitioning away from its nonprofit structure - a development that could eventually lead to Microsoft $(MSFT)$ acquiring the AI research company, according to Richard Windsor, founder of research firm Radio Free Mobile.

OpenAI is working toward converting its for-profit arm into a public-benefit corporation. The nonprofit arm will remain a shareholder in the public-benefit corporation, with a stake of over $100 billion. But, crucially, the size of the stake "implies that [the nonprofit] will have no control over the company," Windsor wrote in a note published Friday.

"Instead of a for-profit company labouring with a non-profit conflicting entity sitting on top of it and controlling it, the for-profit company will be free and have the non-profit as a large shareholder," he added.

The transition "paves the way for OpenAI to become a properly run company and potentially to go public at some point in the future," Windsor wrote. The new structure would make it easier for OpenAI to raise funding down the road, "reducing the risks of implosion [resulting from] running out of money" according to Windsor.

Microsoft has been an investor in OpenAI since 2019 and currently holds a 49% stake in the company's for-profit arm, but the two companies have evolved from partners to frenemy status. OpenAI has grown to become a competitor to Microsoft, participating in cloud deals with Oracle Corp. $(ORCL)$ and receiving funding from Softbank Group Corp. (JP:9984).

However, Windsor believes Microsoft has won "substantial concessions" from OpenAI as it navigates its transition. Softbank's investment is contingent on OpenAI's successful transformation into a for-profit organization by the end of the year, which it can't do without Microsoft's approval. Microsoft's investment in OpenAI also carries less risk as OpenAI switches to a profit-driven business model.

If OpenAI continues to successfully monetize, the road ahead could involve an IPO. But Windsor thinks a more probable outcome is that the company will run into liquidity issues before that happens, creating an opportunity for Microsoft to buy the company.

OpenAI is currently burning through cash at higher-than-expected rates. According to The Information, OpenAI now projects $115 billion of cash burn through 2029, $80 billion higher than previously projected. That means the company will need to continuously raise new capital. If investor appetite for funding AI development fades, OpenAI could run into financial troubles that leave it unable to deliver on its contractual commitments, like its multibillion-dollar deal to use cloud computing infrastructure from Oracle.

"I think that the most likely situation is that OpenAI gets into a cash crunch and is purchased by Microsoft," Windsor wrote.

A Microsoft spokesperson declined to comment beyond the joint statement issued with OpenAI on Thursday, which among other things noted that the companies were "actively working to finalize contractual terms in a definitive agreement" and were "focused on delivering the best AI tools for everyone, grounded in our shared commitment to safety." An OpenAI spokesperson didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Also read: OpenAI could be worth trillions of dollars one day, these analysts say. Here's what that means for rivals.

-Christine Ji

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September 12, 2025 11:05 ET (15:05 GMT)

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