Al Root

Vertical Aerospace, a developer of electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, plans to certify its new VX4 aircraft for less money than Joby Aviation or Archer Aviation plan to spend certifying their new aircraft.

That's a good thing, but investors value something else right now.

Vertical Aerospace laid out some business goals for investors at a presentation in New York on Wednesday afternoon. The company plans to certify its VX4 eVTOL aircraft in Europe by 2029 for $700 million.

That's an impressively low amount of money. Joby Aviation should wrap up aircraft certification in late 2025 or early 2026. It will have spent roughly $4 billion certifying its eVTOL, according to analyst estimates aggregated by FactSet. Archer Aviation is on a similar timeline. It's expected to spend closer to $2 billion certifying its first aircraft.

One reason for the difference appears to be geography. Vertical will certify its aircraft in Europe. Joby and Archer are seeking approval from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration.

After certification, Vertical Aerospace projects $100 million in annual free cash flow by 2030. That's better than the roughly break-even result that Wall Street currently projects. Vertical also projects annual production capacity of 900 aircraft by 2035. Gross profit margins should be about 40% by then. Gross profit margins at Airbus were about 15% in 2024.

Wall Street projects positive free cash flow for Archer in 2028 and for Joby in 2030. None of the three companies has generated significant sales yet.

It's a bullish outlook from Vertical Aerospace. Still, shares finished down 2.2% at $4.75, while the S&P 500 was down 0.1% and Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6%.

Current prices value Vertical Aerospace at a market capitalization of roughly $500 million. Joby and Archer have market values of about $12 billion and $6 billion, respectively.

The two later companies plan to start commercial service overseas in 2025 and service in the U.S. in 2026. That's two to three years before Vertical Aerospace. That is probably the biggest reason for the valuation difference. The gap is a potential source of upside for investors if Vertical Aerospace hits all of its goals.

Through Wednesday trading, Joby and Archer stocks were up roughly 170% and 190%, respectively, over the past 12 months. Vertical Aerospace's stock was down more than 40% over the past 12 months.

Overall, 86% of analysts covering Vertical Aerospace stock rate shares Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. The average analyst price target is about $11.40 a share.

For Archer stock, 86% of analysts covering the company rate shares Buy. The average analyst price target is about $13.50. Only one of 7, or 14% of analysts covering Joby stock rate shares Buy. The average analyst price target is $13.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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September 17, 2025 16:16 ET (20:16 GMT)

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