AI行業面臨8000億美元收入缺口，萬億投資回報堪憂

金十數據

2025/09/23

人工智能公司如OpenAI已迅速公布投入數萬億美元建設數據中心的計劃，但在展示如何獲得足夠收入以覆蓋所有這些開支方面則進展緩慢。如今，諮詢公司貝恩（Bain & Co.）估計，這一收入缺口可能遠比此前理解的更為巨大。貝恩在其周二發布的年度《全球科技報告》中表示，到2030年，AI公司需要合計2萬億美元的年收入，才能為滿足預期需求所需的計算能力提供資金。但貝恩預測，由於ChatGPT等服務的貨幣化...

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Co.）估計，這一收入缺口可能遠比此前理解的更為巨大。貝恩在其周二發布的年度《全球科技報告》中表示，到2030年，AI公司需要合計2萬億美元的年收入，才能為滿足預期需求所需的計算能力提供資金。但貝恩預測，由於ChatGPT等服務的貨幣化努力落後於數據中心及相關基礎設施的投資需求，它們的年收入可能比這一目標短缺8000億美元。該報告勢將引發關於AI行業估值和商業模式的進一步質疑。OpenAI的ChatGPT、谷歌的Gemini等服務的日益普及，以及全球各公司的AI投入，意味着對計算能力和能源的需求正在快速上升。但AI所帶來的成本節約以及公司從AI中產生額外收入的能力，卻未能跟上這一速度。「如果當前的規模定律持續生效，AI將日益對全球供應鏈構成壓力，」貝恩全球科技業務主席大衞·克勞福德（David Crawford）表示。據彭博社報道，OpenAI每年虧損數十億美元，並優先考慮增長而非盈利，但其確實預計到2029年實現現金流轉正。貝恩報告未詳細説明若AI公司到2030年仍未能實現盈利可能產生何種影響。根據彭博行業研究的數據，包括微軟、亞馬遜和Meta平台公司在內的最大科技公司，到下一個十年初，將其AI年度總支出增加至超過5000億美元。OpenAI、DeepSeek等公司發布新模型，正在刺激對AI服務的需求，並推動整個行業加大投資。貝恩表示，到2030年，全球AI計算增量需求可能飆升至200吉瓦，其中美國將佔一半。報告指出，雖然技術和算法的突破可能減輕負擔，但供應鏈限制或電力供應不足可能阻礙進展。除了計算能力方面的支出，領先的AI公司還在產品開發上投入巨資。能夠在有限指導下像人類一樣執行多步驟任務的自主AI智能體是重點領域之一。貝恩估計，在未來三到五年內，企業預計將把高達10%的技術支出用於構建包括智能體平台在內的核心AI能力。除了AI服務，貝恩在其年度科技報告中表示，它預期量子計算等領域也將增長。報告稱，這項新興技術可能為金融、製藥、物流和材料科學等行業釋放2500億美元的市場價值。儘管一些人期待出現單一的量子突破，但貝恩認為這將是一個漸進的過程：未來10年內在狹窄領域早期應用，並隨着時間的推移實現更廣泛的採用。貝恩表示，人形機器人正吸引資金並變得越來越普遍，但部署仍處於早期階段，且嚴重依賴人工監督。這家諮詢公司認為，商業成功將取決於生態系統的準備程度，早期試點機器人的公司將在行業中領先。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}