Change is the only constant, and 2025 has provided ample evidence of that truth. Yet it's also an opportunity for companies that can take advantage of the shifting tides of the global economy.

Between zigzagging tariffs, rapid pivots in geopolitics, and questions about the future of the Federal Reserve's independence, there has been no shortage of unprecedented and alarming policies in President Donald Trump's second term. The market doesn't seem to mind, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hitting record highs again at the start of this week, but it is eroding confidence and upending the global paradigm.

The upshot is that even if U.S. markets as a whole keep climbing -- thanks to catalysts like artificial intelligence and economic growth -- indvidiual companies have to navigate a seemingly constantly changing landscape. Fresh tariffs announced Thursday on pharmaceuticals, building materials and trucks are just the latest example of ongoing uncertainty.

Guessing what could be next is a difficult game, but "what is certain to us is that a new global trade order is taking shape," writes Société Générale Equity Strategist Makhdoom Muteeb Raina.

There are real world constraints on what the administration can do in its quest to remake global trade, ranging from legal challenges to the logistics of undoing complex manufacturing systems, and China's own influence. Nonetheless, there is likely to be some degree of shifting of supply chains as well as "decoupling from China in respect of strategic goods," as the firm puts it.

That means investors should be looking to identify winners and losers in the new normal.

"Leaders include companies benefiting i) from an increase in manufacturing capex, ii) a focus on sovereignty, and iii) high local content in the U.S.," writes Muteeb Raina. "Conversely, laggards include companies hit by i) efficiency loss, ii) increased competition, and iii) a decline in exports."

SocGen established investment buckets identifying leaders and laggards in June, and since then the framework is still intact, he writes.

The dozen stocks that were rated highest on that list were Oracle, Linde PLC, Caterpillar, Honeywell, Palo Alto Networks, Eaton Corp., Prologis, Fortinet, Air Products & Chemicals, Cloudflare, Freeport-McMoRan, and Quanta Services.

At the time, Apple and Amazon topped the laggards list, given tariff exposure, which has been somewhat resolved. The other top 10 names were McDonald's, Starbucks, PayPal, General Motors, Target, Constellation, Stellantis NV, Corpay, Zoom, and Dollar Tree.

How global trade ultimately shakes out remains an open question, but it does seem that investors can count on things not going back to the way they were.