EMERGING MARKETS-EM assets slip as investors weigh restrained Fed easing outlook

Reuters
09/25
EMERGING MARKETS-EM assets slip as investors weigh restrained Fed easing outlook

EM stocks down 0.4%, FX down 0.1%

Czech National Bank keeps rates on hold

Pepco Group jumps after reporting higher revenue

Turkey's Erdogan to meet Trump later in the day

By Nikhil Sharma

Sept 25 (Reuters) - Emerging market stocks fell on Thursday, while currencies also wavered against a steady dollar as investors assessed prospects of a measured U.S. monetary policy easing outlook.

The MSCI index tracking emerging market equities .MSCIEF lost 0.4%, set to snap three days of gains. A parallel gauge for currencies .MIEM00000CUS slipped 0.1%, set to extend its losing streak to six sessions.

The U.S. dollar was steady after having strengthened since last week's Federal Reserve rate cut, as comments from officials this week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, signaled a cautious tone on future rate cuts.

"The movements that we've been seeing this week (in EM markets), it's very much a dollar-driven story, with Powell's comments about sort of a more cautious stance towards rate cuts," said Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index.

"What happens next will depend largely on the data that we've got coming this afternoon."

The Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, on Friday and the final estimate for second-quarter U.S. GDP on Thursday could help investors gauge the impact of tariffs and future rate-cut expectations.

In Central Eastern Europe, the Czech and Hungarian central banks held their rates steady, causing the Czech crown EURCZK= and Hungarian forint EURHUF= to trade with caution on Thursday.

Prague equities .PX traded flat, while Hungary's main equity index .BUX edged 0.2% higher.

Polish stocks .WIG20 dropped 0.8% and the zloty EURPLN= was subdued.

Warsaw-listed discount retailer Pepco Group PCOP.WA jumped more than 12% after reporting higher year-to-date revenue, helped by store expansion and like-for-like growth at its core Pepco brand.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development lifted its 2025 growth forecast slightly to 3.1%, but warned tariffs and war would weigh in 2026. It noted emerging European countries' growth lagged its peers.

In Latin America, the Argentine markets' comeback this week grabbed headlines. The markets roared further on Wednesday after U.S. revealed ongoing negotiations for a $20 billion swap line with the country's central bank.

The local peso ARS= jumped 2.1% in the previous session, recovering its losses incurred after Milei's legislative setback in early September. Stocks .MERV rallied 1.5%.

"The U.S. intervention has served as a circuit breaker, affording the Milei administration greater latitude ahead of the October elections," J.P.Morgan analysts said in a note.

"The peso's appreciation has enabled the central bank to ease monetary and credit conditions, forestalling further economic strain."

In Asian Emerging Markets, Thailand's baht THB=TH fell about 0.4% after ratings agency Fitch downgraded the economic outlook to "negative" from "stable", saying political uncertainties were posing a risk to public finance.

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets nTOPEMRG

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/

For TURKISH market report, see .IS

For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB

(Reporting by Nikhil Sharma in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)

((Nikhil.Sharma@thomsonreuters.com))

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