黃金白銀銅連番上漲，底層邏輯與未來前景如何？｜資本市場

清華金融評論

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文/《清華金融評論》王茅當前市場處於「亂世黃金」與「產業革命」的交織期，黃金仍是「去美元化」的核心避險選擇，白銀估值偏低且具備高彈性，銅則受益於全球能源轉型大趨勢、供應缺口擴大等因素。2025年9月29日紐約與倫敦貴金屬表現強勁，倫敦金價收於3827.37美元/盎司，創歷史新高；紐約金價（COMEX黃金期貨）收於3856.38美元/盎司。倫敦銀價報46.72美元/盎司，紐約銀價（COMEX白銀期貨...

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17:39","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2571685342","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"黃金白銀銅連番上漲，底層邏輯與未來前景如何？｜資本市場","media":"清華金融評論","content":"<div>\n<p>文/《清華金融評論》王茅當前市場處於「亂世黃金」與「產業革命」的交織期，黃金仍是「去美元化」的核心避險選擇，白銀估值偏低且具備高彈性，銅則受益於全球能源轉型大趨勢、供應缺口擴大等因素。2025年9月29日紐約與倫敦貴金屬表現強勁，倫敦金價收於3827.37美元/盎司，創歷史新高；紐約金價（COMEX黃金期貨）收於3856.38美元/盎司。倫敦銀價報46.72美元/盎司，紐約銀價（COMEX白銀期貨...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250930195823a6a864a4&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黃金白銀銅連番上漲，底層邏輯與未來前景如何？｜資本市場</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250930195823a6a864a4&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250930195823a6a864a4&s=b\">清華金融評論</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1719994722.HKD","symbol_name":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250930195823a6a864a4&s=b","article_id":"2571685342","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250930195823a6a864a4&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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Markets","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02899":0.9,"06693":0.9,"01787":0.9,"JIAXF":0.9},"content_text":"文/《清華金融評論》王茅當前市場處於「亂世黃金」與「產業革命」的交織期，黃金仍是「去美元化」的核心避險選擇，白銀估值偏低且具備高彈性，銅則受益於全球能源轉型大趨勢、供應缺口擴大等因素。2025年9月29日紐約與倫敦貴金屬表現強勁，倫敦金價收於3827.37美元/盎司，創歷史新高；紐約金價（COMEX黃金期貨）收於3856.38美元/盎司。倫敦銀價報46.72美元/盎司，紐約銀價（COMEX白銀期貨）報46.74美元/盎司。黃金、白銀和銅近期均呈現強勁漲勢，總體而言，核心驅動因素包括避險需求、貨幣政策轉向及供需格局變化等。誠然，黃金、白銀、銅上漲的原因還是各有區別的，讓我們來逐一分析，並看看它們未來的前景如何。黃金近期走勢、大漲原因及未來前景2025年9月26日倫敦現貨黃金已突破3769美元/盎司，年初至今漲幅超42%，創歷史新高。金價飆升，至少包括以下三個原因：一是市場避險需求激增。特朗普貿易政策引發全球關税戰，動搖美元信用體系，加速「去美元化」進程。各國央行持續增持黃金，2024年全球央行購金量連續第三年超過1000噸。二是聯儲局降息預期。美國經濟降温信號增強，市場押注聯儲局將會進一步降息，美元指數跌至98.2（年內跌幅9.1%），黃金以美元計價，吸引力進一步上升。三是地緣影響。中東衝突、歐洲軍備競賽推升避險情緒，VIX恐慌指數一度單月暴漲200%。金價可能在較長一段時間內維持牛市，支撐邏輯就在於以上三點因素在可預見的未來不會發生變化，反而可能進一步增強。一是去美元化趨勢不可逆（62%央行計劃削減美元儲備），央行購金需求強勁（69%央行擬增持黃金）。二是美國衰退風險+聯儲局降息週期開啓，實際利率下行利好金價。三是地緣風險常態化，黃金作為避險資產地位鞏固。對於金價走勢，花旗認為到2025年第四季度漲至3800美元/盎司，也可能會突破4000美元/盎司。當然，如果美國經濟平穩、地緣衝突緩和，金價可能回調至3400美元/盎司。白銀近期走勢、大漲原因及未來前景9月23日倫敦現貨白銀逼近44美元/盎司，創14年新高，年內漲幅超40%；滬銀期貨突破1萬元/千克。白銀上漲的原因包括：一是補漲邏輯。金銀比從歷史高位100:1修復至91:1，白銀估值偏低吸引資金湧入。二是工業+金融雙屬性。光伏（佔需求17%）、新能源等領域需求增長，疊加聯儲局降息預期提振金融屬性。三是受市場情緒推動。白銀ETF期權交易量激增，看漲情緒濃厚。白銀在波動中上行，工業需求是關鍵推手。光伏裝機量剛性增長、新能源應用擴張，白銀供需缺口持續存在。需要指出的是，白銀市場規模僅為黃金的1/10，價格易受投機資金衝擊（如2011年投機潮後需求停滯十年）。銅近期走勢、大漲原因及未來前景LME銅價近期突破10000美元/噸，年內漲幅近20%。銅價近期表現強勢的原因包括：一是供應缺口擴大。礦山中斷事件頻發，2025年供需缺口預計達5.3萬噸，2026年擴至8.7萬噸。二是新興需求爆發。AI數據中心、能源轉型（光伏、電動車）拉動用銅量，中國產能限制使得供應進一步緊張。三是美元走弱。降息預期下美元貶值，大宗商品價格獲支撐。銅的結構性牛市已經啓動。驅動銅價上漲的主要因素包括：綠色經濟與AI革命催生長期需求，銅在電網、數據中心不可或缺；供應增長乏力（2025年增速僅1.3%），庫存處於歷史低位。瑞銀預計，2026年銅價將升至11000美元/噸，花旗持更樂觀情景，認為2026年能漲至14000美元/噸。當前市場處於「亂世黃金」與「產業革命」的交織期，黃金仍是核心避險選擇，白銀具備高彈性，銅則受益於全球能源轉型大趨勢。注：以上是關於投資的一些思考，不構成任何投資建議。編輯 | 王茅","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}