AI研報｜大摩：180天，從「掉隊者」到「AI贏家」的驚天逆轉

AI創智記

2025/10/06

就在六個月前，華爾街還在為谷歌深深擔憂。這家互聯網巨頭在AI浪潮的初期，似乎顯得步履蹣跚：ChatGPT的橫空出世讓它的搜索霸主地位顯得搖搖欲墜，微軟憑藉與OpenAI的聯盟在雲戰爭中步步緊逼，而一場漫長的反壟斷訴訟更是如同達摩克利斯之劍高懸頭頂。市場上瀰漫着一種情緒：谷歌是否已經老去？其核心商業模式是否面臨着結構性風險？國際頂級投行摩根士丹利在2025年10月2日發布了一份重磅研究報告：《約6...

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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251006194126a6aec25d&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251006194126a6aec25d&s=b\">AI創智記</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0048584097.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251006194126a6aec25d&s=b","article_id":"2573667674","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251006194126a6aec25d&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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winner\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"USJW.SI":0.6,"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9},"content_text":"就在六個月前，華爾街還在為谷歌深深擔憂。這家互聯網巨頭在AI浪潮的初期，似乎顯得步履蹣跚：ChatGPT的橫空出世讓它的搜索霸主地位顯得搖搖欲墜，微軟憑藉與OpenAI的聯盟在雲戰爭中步步緊逼，而一場漫長的反壟斷訴訟更是如同達摩克利斯之劍高懸頭頂。市場上瀰漫着一種情緒：谷歌是否已經老去？其核心商業模式是否面臨着結構性風險？國際頂級投行摩根士丹利在2025年10月2日發布了一份重磅研究報告： 《約6個月內，從結構性質疑到AI贏家》《From Structural Question Marks to AI Winner in ~6 Months》報告的核心結論旗幟鮮明：谷歌已經成功地將市場的「結構性質疑」轉化為「AI贏家的確定性」，這場華麗的逆轉，僅僅花了大約180天。那麼，這半年裏究竟發生了什麼？讓摩根士丹利的態度發生瞭如此根本性的轉變？一、陰霾散盡：壓垮谷歌的「三座大山」正在移開報告指出，此前壓制谷歌估值的三重主要壓力已經顯著緩解，甚至轉化為動力。1、AI創新從「追隨」到「引領」半年多來，谷歌通過Gemini系列模型的持續迭代和AI代理（AI Agent）體驗的推出，有力回擊了對其創新能力的質疑。報告認為，谷歌不再是AI競賽的旁觀者或追隨者，而是已經成為核心領跑者之一。其AI技術已深度整合進搜索、廣告、雲服務等核心產品，並開始展現出提升用户體驗和商業效率的巨大潛力。2、反壟斷訴訟迎來「温和」結局美國司法部對谷歌的反壟斷訴訟最終以一種「對谷歌相對有利」的方式達成和解。這消除了業務被強制分拆的最大不確定性，為管理層掃清了障礙，使其能更專注於AI時代的競爭。摩根士丹利認為，這一結果的積極意義遠超市場預期。3、市場情緒與估值修復隨着上述利空出盡，疊加AI成果顯現，投資者的信心迅速恢復。曾經因擔憂而逃離的資金開始重新審視谷歌的價值，其估值折扣也隨之收窄。二、雙輪驅動：搜索與雲業務迎來AI增長新範式報告詳盡分析了谷歌兩大核心引擎——搜索和雲業務在AI賦能下的新前景，認為其增長故事遠未結束，而是啱啱開啓新篇章。1、搜索業務：不是被顛覆，而是被增強市場最大的誤判在於認為生成式AI會徹底顛覆傳統搜索引擎。然而，谷歌的實踐表明，AI正在讓搜索變得更強大、更具價值。例如，通過「AI概述」（AI Overviews）等功能，谷歌能夠直接生成答案，並智能整合購物、本地服務等信息，這反而提升了用户的搜索效率和信息獲取深度。對於廣告商而言，更精準、更富交互性的AI搜索意味着更高的轉化率，這將驅動廣告單次點擊收入的增長。摩根士丹利預計，谷歌搜索收入增速將在2026年和2027年顯著提升。2、谷歌雲（GCP）：AI時代的核心基礎設施這是谷歌打翻身仗的關鍵。報告揭示了幾個強勁信號：驚人的訂單積壓：目前谷歌雲平台擁有高達1080億美元的未完成訂單（backlog），這為其未來收入提供了極強的可見性。增長的「加速器」：基於此，摩根士丹利預測谷歌雲業務在2026年的收入增長率有望達到驚人的39%，增速遠超此前市場的保守預期。谷歌雲正憑藉其在AI計算領域的獨特優勢（如自研的TPU芯片），從亞馬遜AWS和微軟Azure手中搶奪更多市場份額。三、投資價值的重估：目標價大幅上調至270美元基於以上積極因素，摩根士丹利將對谷歌母公司Alphabet的股票評級維持在「增持」（Overweight），並將其目標價從之前的210美元大幅上調至270美元。這一價格反映了機構對谷歌AI驅動下盈利能力和增長潛力的重新定價。報告最後總結道，谷歌的案例是一個經典範例，展示了一家擁有強大技術底藴、海量數據和雄厚財力的巨頭，一旦全面聚焦，其爆發出的能量是何等驚人。市場的擔憂已經從「谷歌能否在AI時代生存」轉變為「谷歌將在AI時代獲取多大的蛋糕」。在約6個月的時間裏，谷歌完成了從「問題學生」到「優等生」的蜕變，正式確立了其作為本輪AI革命中不可爭議的贏家地位。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}