By Paul R. La Monica

Gemini Space Station is an outlier right now in the crypto world.

The initial public offering market is red hot these days, with crypto debuts simply sizzling. Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group and exchanges Bullish and Galaxy Digital have soared, most certainly helped by Bitcoin climbing to nosebleed levels.

But Gemini, run by twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, is just lukewarm.

The stock, which debuted at a price of $28 a share last month and surged to nearly $46 on its first day, is hovering just above $24 after falling to a post-IPO low of $22.25 last week.

Wall Street, though, is forecasting far better days ahead.

On Tuesday, according to FactSet, at least eight analysts launched coverage on Gemini. Six rate the stock a Buy, and two rate it a Hold. The consensus price target of $31.50 is about 30% higher than its current price.

Despite the Buy recommendations, Gemini slumped. In afternoon trading, the stock was off 3.5% to $24.40.

Much of the new coverage came from Gemini's IPO underwriters, which often give favorable ratings about new stocks that they played a role in. Examples are Buy recommendations from Cantor Fitzgerald, Mizuho Securities, Needham, and Truist.

Still, Gemini has several things in its favor that could make the stock a long-term winner.

One is Nasdaq's strategic investment. Another is how Gemini has differentiated itself from its crypto rivals with its line of credit cards, which offer rewards in Bitcoin, XRP, and several other digital currencies.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch pointed out that "as the company increased marketing investments this year, its card has taken off."

Gemini, he noted, had nearly 45,000 sign-ups for the card in July and August, putting it on track to triple its user base this year.

The card is key for Gemini because "a large percentage of credit card users become active traders," added Knoblauch, who has a $37 price target, the second highest on Wall Street.

Mizuho's Dan Dolev, who has a $30 price target, is all-in on Gemini's card, too.

"The card is highly attractive with no annual fee, no balance requirement, and reward tokens that can be adjusted," he wrote.

John Todaro of Needham is even more bullish, with a $42 price target.

Todaro thinks the company is doing a good job of attracting new customers and, like other crypto firms, should gain ground because of a pro-crypto Washington.

"We believe Gemini can capture some 'low-hanging fruit' from recent regulatory changes and benefit from recent marketing spend," Todaro wrote.

President Donald Trump and his sons are investors in crypto, and federal regulators are now led by crypto supporters, such as Paul Atkins of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

And Gemini has clawed its way back from a reputational hit, Todaro pointed out.

Some customer assets were frozen in 2022 after the collapse of crypto exchange FTX led to a liquidity crunch at a Gemini partner, Genesis Capital. Eventually, Gemini recovered more than $2 billion for investors following lawsuits and paid about $50 million out of its own pocket.

Today, Gemini is once again reporting solid gains in monthly transacting users "as it regains trust from customers," he wrote.

Matthew Coad of Truist Securities added that Gemini's post-IPO weakness could be an opportunity. His price target is $31.

Other larger crypto brokerages, such as Coinbase and Robinhood, are having a phenomenal year. Coinbase's shares are up more than 50%. Robinhood has skyrocketed nearly 300%, making it the best stock in the S&P 500.

"For investors that feel like they have missed the boat on Coinbase and Robinhood, we would recommend kicking the tires on Gemini," he wrote.

Write to Paul R. La Monica at paul.lamonica@barrons.com

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October 07, 2025 14:43 ET (18:43 GMT)

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