By Adam Clark

ASML Holding will report its third-quarter earnings on Wednesday. The numbers will test whether recent investor enthusiasm for the chip-making equipment company is justified.

ASML is expected to report earnings of 5.45 euros ($6.30) a share, on revenue of EUR7.74 billion ($8.9 billion), according to a FactSet poll of analysts' estimates.

The Dutch company's American depositary receipts (ADRs) have been on an impressive run lately, surging more than 30% from their level at the start of September.

Investors look to be betting on the company striking a more upbeat tone than its previous earnings announcement when it said sales this year are set to rise 15% to EUR32.5 billion but tariff uncertainty meant it couldn't guarantee growth in 2026.

ASML should be well placed to benefit from the boom in demand for advanced chips created by the growth of artificial intelligence. It has a near-monopoly on the specialized lithography machines used to produce the high-performance chips used in AI data centers.

However, ASML has struggled with a slowdown in spending on its most advanced extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, tools by Samsung Electronics and Intel. That has left the company dependent on investment by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, which has been reluctant to commit to buying ASML's latest high numerical aperture, or High NA EUV, machines.

"Although adoption of High NA EUV in production is likely only in late 2027 or early 2028, in our opinion, the countdown to its adoption has started," J.P. Morgan analyst Sandeep Deshpande wrote in a research note ahead of ASML's earnings announcement. "We believe that interest in ASML and thus the stock multiple is likely to expand as the company sees more orders for this technology to enable customers to ramp it up into high volume manufacturing."

Deshpande has an Overweight rating and $1,175 target price on ASML's ADRs. The ADRs were down 1.2% at $972.61 in early trading on Tuesday.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

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October 14, 2025 10:31 ET (14:31 GMT)

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