博通獲OpenAI 10GW定製芯片大單，AI芯片三巨頭格局正式成型？

美港股觀察社

2025/10/15

作者：JR Research編譯：美港股觀察社OpenAI（可以說）正成為人工智能半導體價值鏈中最具影響力的客戶。僅在過去一個多月裏，它就與英偉達簽署了10GW的合作協議，同時還獲得了英偉達CEO黃仁勳提出的1000億美元OpenAI投資意向書。隨後，這家人工智能初創公司迅速與AMD達成合作，新增6GW算力產能，同時還獲得了最多1.6億股AMD股票的認購權。緊接着在周一，OpenAI又敲定了另一筆...

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shape?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"AVGO":1.5,"AMD":0.9},"content_text":"作者：JR Research編譯：美港股觀察社OpenAI（可以説）正成為人工智能半導體價值鏈中最具影響力的客户。僅在過去一個多月裏，它就與英偉達簽署了10GW的合作協議，同時還獲得了英偉達CEO黃仁勳提出的1000億美元OpenAI投資意向書。隨後，這家人工智能初創公司迅速與AMD達成合作，新增6GW算力產能，同時還獲得了最多1.6億股AMD股票的認購權。緊接着在周一，OpenAI又敲定了另一筆新增10GW算力的合作，但此次合作方是博通。若對這些技術與實體基礎設施的總成本進行粗略估算，新增支出需求可能將突破1萬億美元大關。OpenAI要如何承擔這筆費用？不妨引用華爾街的一句話來回答：「OpenAI目前沒有能力做出任何此類承諾，」DA Davidson分析師吉爾·盧里亞表示。他補充道：「該公司今年可能會虧損約100億美元。硅谷‘先假裝成功，直到真正成功’的文化，核心之一就是讓各方都投入切身利益。如今，已有眾多大型企業在OpenAI身上投入了大量資源。」（來源：《金融時報》）以下是OpenAI近期與半導體設計商及新興雲服務商達成的合作協議匯總。這些數字十分驚人，因為我們從未見過如此龐大的產能以這樣的速度和力度被敲定。對博通而言，這筆合作或許終於讓CEO霍克·坦擁有了「定製計算TAM」的吹噓資本。OpenAI明確表示，隨着公司尋求進一步擴大規模、加快客户接納速度，平台優化的重要性正日益提升——而更高的效率將成為其對抗競爭對手的關鍵因素。因此，博通此前宣稱的600億至900億美元可服務可用市場規模，很可能會在下次財報電話會議中大幅上調。過去18個月裏，OpenAI與博通一直保持密切合作。儘管雙方的合作並非新鮮事，但此次合作的規模絕對是前所未有的，這也表明計算需求的增長和演變速度正大幅加快。短期內，這筆交易可能會拉低博通的整體盈利能力。不過，從交易規模來看，博通的利潤總額有望創下新高，這應能緩解投資者對毛利率下降的擔憂。博通準備挑戰英偉達的主導地位華爾街預測，博通每新增1GW算力產能，就能額外獲得200億美元收入。按此推算，到2029年，該公司通過此類合作最多可新增2000億美元收入。相關產能預計將於2026年下半年開始初步部署，顯然兩家公司都將在相對較短的時間內加快建設進度。若執行過程完美推進，與博通目前的收入節奏相比，這一增長無疑是史無前例的。很明顯，這筆交易將立即推動博通躋身人工智能芯片設計商第一梯隊，與英偉達、AMD三足鼎立。儘管英偉達的領先地位暫不會被超越，但此類合作也印證了博通與現有XPU客户達成更大規模合作的潛力。目前市場對AMD和博通給予更高估值倍數的做法，似乎正得到驗證——尤其是相較於英偉達的估值倍數。由於AMD的人工智能業務收入基數較小，市場對其估值明顯高於英偉達和博通；而博通目前的估值倍數略高於英偉達，約為30.5倍。不過，鑑於這筆交易預計不會立即對博通的利潤表產生增值效應，未來兩年市場應會逐步將收益增值納入估值考量，這將有助於維持博通較高的估值倍數，降低估值壓縮風險。博通前景如何？儘管如此，市場似乎仍存在一些疑慮，這可能源於博通多年規劃的規模。值得注意的是，儘管博通在周一的交易中飆升近10%，但並未繼續突破去年9月的前期高點。我們必須正視一個問題：OpenAI需要為這些芯片買單，對吧？對於一家預計到2029年仍將現金流為負的公司來説，資金將從何而來？關於OpenAI是否已與其他客户敲定足夠的承購產能，外界仍存在諸多疑問。從種種跡象來看，OpenAI似乎有志於在未來幾年成為重要的超大規模企業，試圖為未使用的過剩產能找到出路。但需注意的是，博通為OpenAI定製的芯片預計將高度匹配其特定工作負載需求，它們可能不像基於英偉達平台打造的商用芯片那樣具備可重新編程性。因此，在判斷這10GW新增產能能否完全落地時，市場會採取更為審慎的態度。除此之外，若博通與OpenAI的合作能充分發揮潛力，博通的看漲邏輯將提升到新高度。而且，考慮到全球人工智能基礎設施建設計劃規模達3萬億至4萬億美元，目前我們仍處於這一進程的早期階段。憑藉強勁的盈利能力，以及在定製人工智能計算和網絡領域的競爭護城河，這筆交易的規模證實了博通TAM的廣度——而這一點在以往並未得到充分認可。因此，在下次逢低買入機會出現時，博通理應成為重點關注對象。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}