非銀金融行業週報：上市險企3季報業績預告超預期，非銀板塊攻守兼備

開源證券

10/20

（以下內容從開源證券《非銀金融行業週報：上市險企3季報業績預告超預期，非銀板塊攻守兼備》研報附件原文摘錄）周觀點：上市險企3季報業績預告超預期，非銀板塊攻守兼備本週部分上市險企披露3季度業績預告，高基數仍實現同比高增，業績增速超市場預期，保險板塊整體超額上漲明顯。保險板塊8月底以來整體有所調整，估值位於較低水平，預定利率切換有望帶來3季度新單增速改善，同時3季報投資收益或明顯超預期，看好保險板塊...

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capabilities","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80388":0.6,"00388":0.9,"03908":0.9,"09636":0.9,"HEXmain":0.6,"HKXCY":0.6},"content_text":"（以下內容從開源證券《非銀金融行業週報：上市險企3季報業績預告超預期，非銀板塊攻守兼備》研報附件原文摘錄）周觀點：上市險企3季報業績預告超預期，非銀板塊攻守兼備本週部分上市險企披露3季度業績預告，高基數仍實現同比高增，業績增速超市場預期，保險板塊整體超額上漲明顯。保險板塊8月底以來整體有所調整，估值位於較低水平，預定利率切換有望帶來3季度新單增速改善，同時3季報投資收益或明顯超預期，看好保險板塊當下投資機會。券商板塊3季報有望延續高景氣，估值仍在低位，看好券商板塊佈局機會，此外推薦高股息率、盈利穩健增長的江蘇金租。2025金融街論壇年會擬於10月27日開幕，「一行兩局一會」主要負責人將作主題演講。保險：3季報業績預告超預期，投資收益或帶來3季報高景氣（1）本週部分上市險企披露3季報業績預告，2024年3季度高基數下仍實現較大幅度增長，業績增速整體超預期，預計3季度股市上漲帶動投資收益超預期。10月19日晚中國人壽公告，公司預計前3季度歸母淨利潤同比+50%至+70%（中報+7%）；10月14日新華保險公告，公司預計前3季度歸母淨利潤同比+45%至+65%（中報+34%）；10月16日中國財險公告，預計公司前3季度歸母淨利潤同比+40%至+60%（中報+32%）。（2）長端底部企穩，淨資產壓力緩解，同時權益資產提振資產端收益率預期，負債成本壓降迎來拐點，險企利差中長期維度看有望持續改善，帶動險企ROE中樞改善，看好PB估值修復，3季報淨利潤和投資收益有望超預期，H股配置價值相對較高，推薦低估值中國太保和中國平安。券商：9月新開兩融賬户數創年內新高，業績景氣和低估值下板塊攻防兼備（1）本週日均股基成交額2.78萬億，環比-12.7%。中證數據公司最新數據顯示，9月份市場新開兩融賬户20.54萬户，創下今年以來最高紀錄，環比8月的18.30萬户增長12.24%，同比大幅增長288%。（2）東吳證券10月15日公告，預計2025年前3季度歸母淨利潤27.48億-30.23億，同比+50%至+65%。根據公司中報業績計算，預計3季度歸母淨利潤環比-14%至+15%。（3）3季度交易活躍度和兩融規模提升明顯，疊加低基數，券商3季報業績同比增速有望進一步擴大；我們預計前三季度上市券商歸母淨利潤同比+53.1%（扣非口徑，中報+50.4%），Q3單季度環比+1%。向後展望，投行、衍生品和公募業務等業務有望接續改善，頭部券商海外業務崛起和內生增長導向有望驅動本輪頭部券商ROE擴張，板塊估值仍在低位，機構欠配明顯，繼續看好券商板塊戰略性配置機會。三條主線：推薦零售優勢突出、受益於海南跨境資管試點的國信證券；海外和機構業務優勢突出的華泰證券、中金公司；大財富管理優勢突出的廣發證券和東方證券H。推薦及受益標的組合推薦標的組合：華泰證券，廣發證券，國信證券，東方證券H，中金公司H，東方財富，國泰海通；中國人壽，中國太保，中國平安；江蘇金租，香港交易所。受益標的組合：同花順，九方智投控股，新華保險。風險提示：資本市場波動對投資收益帶來波動風險；保險負債端表現不及預期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}